Kristi Noem’s chances of leaving Trump cabinet surge over Alex Pretti death

The chances that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will leave President Donald Trump’s cabinet have increased after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, according to betting platform Kalshi.

Pretti, an intensive care nurse and U.S. citizen, was shot dead by a federal immigration agent in Minnesota, Minneapolis on Saturday during a federal immigration enforcement operation.

Pretti’s killing was the second fatal shooting by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis this month, following the January 7 death of Renee Nicole Good, who was shot by an ICE agent during another enforcement action.

The chances that Noem will be the first to leave the Trump cabinet have increased from 14.8 percent on January 23, to 37 percent on January 26, Kalshi’s figures suggest.

Newsweek reached out to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.

Why It Matters

The death of Pretti has raised questions about the conduct of immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) officers in the U.S. and has sparked protests across the country.

Noem holds responsibility for these officers as she leads up DHS and its subsidiary agencies. If she is removed from office—which currently seems highly unlikely—it will undermine trust in the agency and the administration more broadly and will cause a political headache for Trump who will have to replace her.

What To Know

The 37 percent figure is the highest the odds that Noem will be the first to leave the cabinet have been since Trump took office in January 2025. The second highest peak occurred on December 9, when she was given a 33.4 percent chance of being the first to leave the cabinet.

These surged betting odds come after anonymous DHS officials reportedly told CNN that the agency was furious with Noem over the handling of Pretti’s shooting and her defense of the ICE official who shot Pretti.

It also comes after more than 100 Democrats co-sponsored a resolution put forward by Representative Robin Kelly, an Illinois Democrat, to bring articles of impeachment against Noem. However, given the Republican majorities in the House and Senate, this resolution is unlikely to succeed.

Aside from impeachment, Noem can leave federal office if Trump fires her or if she chooses to resign over the pressure.

But Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. told Newsweek it was unlikely Trump would remove her. “Noem is on particularly shaky ground with her defense of ICE, but until she says or does something that directly humiliates Trump, her job is safe,” he said. “The danger for Trump is that once one of his hand-picked lieutenants falls, the rest could collapse like a house of cards and we’d return to the revolving door appointments of the first term.”

What People Are Saying

Senator John Hickenlooper, a Colorado Democrat, said in an X post: “Federal officers just shot another person in Minneapolis. This is horrific. We are still learning more about what happened, but one thing is clear, the President needs to get ICE and Border Patrol units out of our communities. NOW.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in an X post: “As tens of thousands across America protest the violence that ICE sows with impunity, federal agents shot and killed another person in Minneapolis today. ICE terrorizes our cities. ICE puts us all in danger. Abolish ICE.”

President Donald Trump blamed Democratic leaders, writing on Truth Social: “What is that all about? Where are the local Police? Why weren’t they allowed to protect ICE Officers?” He accused Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey of “inciting Insurrection, with their pompous, dangerous, and arrogant rhetoric.”

Gregory Bovino of U.S. Border Patrol said: “This is only the latest attack on law enforcement. Across the country, the men and women of DHS have been attacked, shot at.”

What Happens Next

An investigation into Pretti’s death by Minnesota officials is ongoing.

Meanwhile the odds of a government shutdown have also surged in the aftermath of Pretti’s death, as Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said his party will block a Department of Homeland Security funding package.