Pending home sales hit highest level in years—What it means
After months of slumber, the U.S. housing market has finally jolted awake, with pending home sales nationwide hitting their highest level since September 2022 in the four weeks ending May 3, according to the latest data by Redfin.
Pending home sales were up nearly 8 percent from the same period in 2025, while—and this is key— the median monthly mortgage payment decreased.
The modest decline in housing costs brought some buyers back from the sidelines of the market, where they had been pushed by years of historically high mortgage rates, still-rising home prices and growing uncertainty over the state of the U.S. economy and the cost of living.
“The first signs of life in the 2026 housing market appeared in the first week of May,” said real estate analyst Nick Gerli, founder of real estate platform Reventure App, commenting on the Redfin data. “If I had to guess, I would say the excessively low demand to start 2026 is starting to result in some buyers playing ‘catch-up’ and jumping into the market after Easter,” he added.
There were 340,101 pending home sales in the country within those weeks, up 7.7 percent from the same period a year earlier—even as the median sale price of the typical U.S. home was still up 1.9 percent from 2025, at $394,803.
But crucially, the median monthly mortgage payment was down 2.2 percent from a year earlier, at $2,606 at a 6.3 percent mortgage rate, according to Redfin. Two weeks earlier, they were at a six-month high of 6.46 percent.
Pending home sales saw the biggest hikes in Chicago (19.2 percent), Pittsburgh (16.5 percent), San Francisco (15.2 percent), Miami (15 percent), and Austin (14.6 percent).
It declined in just four metropolitan areas—Houston (-9.3 percent), Detroit (-3.3 percent), Seattle (-2.7 percent), and Warren, Michigan (-1.8 percent).
“Two Midwest markets with more affordable prices, two markets with huge price drops. And one market with a modest price drop (Miami),” Gerli wrote on X, commenting on the data.
“Initial rebound markets in 2026 and 2027 will be Midwest-centric with higher affordability, alongside a handful of South/West markets where prices have dropped.”
What Does This Mean for the US Housing Market?
The latest pending home sales data shows that there are many would-be buyers in the country waiting for any improvement in affordability to make a move in the market.
That is especially true in spring, which is traditionally considered the busiest season for the housing market.
The season had been pretty disappointing for housing experts until now, as the start of the war in Iran made buyers even more cautious in approaching the market and fueled a hike in mortgage rates.
But experts have not lost hope: Redfin researchers suggest that this recent uptick in seasonally adjusted pending sales “could signal that spring homebuying season is starting late.”
Even then, the market is now slower and less competitive that it has been in past springs, with the typical U.S. home going under contract in 43 days, three days longer than a year ago.
Many sellers, facing shrunk demand and high competition, are also not getting the prices they are asking for.
Just over one-quarter (26.4 percent) of homes that went under contract in the four weeks ending May 3 sold above asking price, the lowest share for this time of year in at least five years.
Will Homebuyers Withdraw Again or Continue to Come Forward?
If temporarily lower borrowing costs have brought some buyers back to the market, this week’s increase to 6.37 percent, as reported by Freddie Mac, suggests that many might choose to remain to the sidelines once again.
“Recent volatility in mortgage rates has undoubtedly created hurdles for prospective home buyers. However, borrowers have more control over their mortgage rate than they might think,” Realtor.com senior economist Jiayi Xu told Newsweek in a written statement.
According to the expert, “shopping around is the single biggest rate-reducer: choosing the right lender in a high-rate environment can save up to 0.55 percentage points—equivalent to more than $40,000 over the life of a 30-year loan.”
The housing market is “more navigable than the headlines suggest for buyers willing to think creatively about their options,” senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com Hannah Jones said in a written statement.
“Whether that means shopping lenders to secure a better rate, using time on the sidelines to build toward a stronger down payment, or exploring multigenerational living to make the numbers work, the path to homeownership remains open.”
