How Trump’s approval rating stands after US 250th birthday: 6 polls

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating remains underwater in a cluster of national surveys conducted around the July Fourth holiday, with support largely stuck in the high 30s to low 40s and disapproval consistently above 50 percent.

Across six major polls taken in late June and early July, Trump’s approval ranges from 35 percent to 43 percent, while disapproval stretches from roughly 53 percent to 61 percent—offering a consistent snapshot of a presidency facing stubborn headwinds.

The White House has dismissed the polling as only a partial reflection of the president’s performance.

“No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement.

He added that the administration has made “historic progress… and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”

Key Points

• I&I/TIPP Poll: 38 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove (net negative 16 points)
• Big Data Poll: about 43 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove (net negative about 10 points)
• HarrisX (2WAY): 43 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove (net negative 11 points)
• Economist/YouGov: 35 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove (net negative 26 points)
• Quantus Insights: 43.4 percent approve, 54.5 percent disapprove (net negative 11 points)
• Focaldata: net approval negative 23, with disapproval at 57 percent

New national polling released around the U.S. 250th Independence Day shows Trump’s approval rating still below water despite small shifts among independents and Republicans.

Presidential approval ratings are a key leading indicator of midterm outcomes, especially with the 2026 congressional elections approaching.

Republicans on the ballot in November face a political environment shaped by Trump’s weak national numbers but durable support within his base.

Why It Matters

Trump’s approval has hovered around 40 percent in recent averages, a level historically associated with congressional losses for the president’s party.

The decisive variable remains independents, where even modest movement can reshape the national map.

I&I/TIPP Poll Shows Stability Beneath the Surface

The I&I/TIPP poll, conducted June 29 through July 2 among 1,473 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, shows little change in Trump’s standing.

Overall, 38 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove, leaving Trump 16 points underwater.

The topline masks movement beneath the surface. Republican approval rose to 75 percent from 71 percent, and independents edged up slightly to 27 percent from 24 percent in the previous survey. Democratic disapproval climbed further, reaching 86 percent.

The I&I/TIPP survey comes from a pollster with a strong track record, having correctly called the winner in each of the past six U.S. presidential elections.

Big Data Poll Suggests Issue-Driven Improvement

The Big Data Poll survey, conducted June 26 to June 28 among 2,971 registered voters and 2,604 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 and 1.7 points, respectively.

It places Trump at 42.9 percent approval and 53.4 percent disapproval, a gap of just over 10 points.

Pollsters linked the slight improvement to geopolitical developments, particularly movement toward a peace deal tied to the Iran conflict.

“The war was never popular and voters have been frustrated over what they perceive to be a lack of focus on domestic issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said.

“But this is the first month since the start of the Iran War the picture was a little rosier for the President and Republicans.”

He added: “That said, these results and the transcripts of interviews conducted make it very clear that the fate of the Republican majorities in November is almost certainly tied to a lasting peace with Iran.”

HarrisX Poll Highlights Entrenched Polarization

A HarrisX (2WAY) poll conducted July 6 to July 7 among 1,008 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, finds Trump at 43 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval.

The partisan breakdown is stark:

• Republicans: 82 percent approve
• Democrats: 12 percent approve
• Independents: 32 percent approve

Among MAGA-identifying voters, approval climbs to 93 percent, underscoring the depth of support within Trump’s core coalition.

Economist/YouGov Poll Shows Deepest Deficit

The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted July 3 to July 6 among 1,603 U.S. adult citizens with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points, finds Trump in his weakest position.

Just 35 percent approved, while 61 percent disapproved—a 26-point deficit.

Importantly, opposition is highly intense, with a majority of respondents saying they strongly disapprove.

Intensity gaps like this often matter more than simple approval shares when forecasting turnout and electoral swing.

Quantus Insights Poll Signals Midterm Risk

The Quantus Insights survey, conducted July 3, 6, and 7 among 1,140 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points, shows 43.3 percent approval and 54.5 percent disapproval.

More telling is the intensity split: 51.2 percent strongly disapprove compared to 39.6 percent who strongly approve.

The broader national mood reinforces the challenge, with more than 61 percent of voters saying the country is on the wrong track—a warning sign historically linked to losses for the governing party.

Focaldata Survey Confirms Broader Trend

A separate poll conducted by Focaldata between June 26 and June 30 reinforces that pattern.

The survey, based on 2,016 adults, with a plus or minus 2.2 percent margin of error, and weighted to reflect the U.S. population across demographics and political behavior, puts Trump’s net approval at negative 23—one of the weakest readings in this set of surveys.

More notably, the share of Americans who disapprove of Trump has risen for four consecutive months, reaching 57 percent in the latest data.

Taken together, that trend suggests not simply stagnation, but a gradual consolidation of opposition over time.

What Happens Next

The direction of Trump’s approval rating in the months ahead will likely depend on two factors: external events and economic perceptions.

Pollsters already point to signs that geopolitical developments—particularly relating to Iran—can move numbers at the margins. But the overall structure of opinion appears deeply entrenched.

With approval still well below 50 percent and disapproval dominant, Republicans enter the 2026 midterm cycle facing the same fundamental political equation.

The key question is whether small gains at the margins—especially with independents—are enough to offset a national environment that, for now, continues to lean against the party in power.