Typhoon Bavi Weakens Ahead of China Landfall; Why Forecasters Still Warn of 200 MPH Wind Gusts

• Typhoon Bavi weakened before expected landfall in eastern China on Saturday.
• Authorities evacuated more than 1.8 million people from coastal provinces.
• Forecasters warned localized wind gusts could reach 200 mph in places.
• Heavy rain, flooding and storm surge remain major threats across the region.

Typhoon Bavi has weakened significantly as it approaches China’s eastern coast, but meteorologists are warning that the storm remains capable of producing destructive winds, torrential rainfall, and life-threatening flooding, prompting one of the largest evacuations in the region this year.

Authorities evacuated more than 1.8 million people across Zhejiang and Fujian provinces ahead of Bavi’s expected landfall Saturday night, according to Reuters, as forecasters warned that even a weakening tropical cyclone can inflict severe damage through powerful wind gusts, storm surge and prolonged heavy rain.

AccuWeather said Bavi, now equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of about 90 mph (154 km/h), could still generate localized wind gusts of up to 200 mph (320 km/h) under its Local StormMax estimate.

The storm has sparked widespread attention because of the apparent contrast between its weakening sustained winds and forecasts for extreme gusts. Weather experts say gusts can be considerably stronger than a storm’s sustained winds, particularly in mountainous coastal terrain and within intense rainbands, meaning communities remain at risk even after a cyclone loses peak intensity.

Millions Evacuated as Storm Nears Eastern China

Chinese authorities ordered mass evacuations before the typhoon’s arrival, moving more than 1.7 million residents from Zhejiang Province and over 100,000 people from neighboring Fujian Province out of vulnerable coastal areas.

Officials also prepared emergency shelters and suspended transportation services as forecasts pointed to damaging winds and widespread flooding.

AccuWeather expects Bavi to make landfall between Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, bringing hazardous weather through Monday before weakening further inland.

The storm has been assigned a Level 4 on AccuWeather’s RealImpact Scale for Tropical Cyclones, reflecting the potential for significant disruption to infrastructure, transportation and daily life.

Why Forecasters Still Warn About 200 MPH Gusts

Although Bavi has weakened considerably from its earlier peak, meteorologists stress that wind gusts differ from sustained wind speeds.

Earlier in its life cycle, Bavi reached Category 5-equivalent intensity, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 178 mph (287 km/h), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). While sustained winds have since declined, AccuWeather says localized conditions could still produce gusts approaching 200 mph in isolated locations.

Such extreme gusts are most likely in elevated terrain, coastal headlands or where local geography amplifies wind speeds.

Meteorologists caution that these localized gust estimates should not be interpreted as the storm’s sustained intensity but rather as the strongest possible winds in isolated areas.

Even without widespread 200 mph winds, forecasters say gusts of up to 160 mph (260 km/h) could be enough to bring down trees and power lines, damage buildings and disrupt transportation networks.

Flooding May Cause the Greatest Damage

Heavy rainfall remains one of Bavi’s biggest threats.

AccuWeather forecasts up to 18 inches (450 millimeters) of rain across parts of eastern China, with isolated areas potentially receiving as much as 24 inches (600 millimeters).

Such rainfall could trigger flash floods, river flooding, mudslides, and widespread transportation disruptions.

Storm surge is also expected along portions of the Fujian and Zhejiang coast, where strong onshore winds may push seawater inland, increasing the risk of coastal inundation.

Forecasters say the combination of wind, rain, and storm surge could cause impacts well beyond the immediate landfall area.

Storm Leaves Damage Across the Pacific

Before turning toward China, Bavi caused significant damage across the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam.

The typhoon passed directly over Rota, while weather stations recorded wind gusts reaching 110 mph on Saipan and 96 mph on Guam.

According to AccuWeather, communications towers collapsed, homes sustained heavy damage, and trees were stripped of their foliage.

The storm also affected Japan’s southern islands, where extreme meteorologist Dr. Reed Timmer documented tropical storm-force winds and coastal flooding in Ishigaki as Bavi’s outer rainbands moved through the area.

Another Tropical System Could Form

Meteorologists are also monitoring a separate disturbance near the Federated States of Micronesia, which could gradually organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the coming days.

If it develops, the system could bring additional heavy rain and gusty winds to the Mariana Islands, where communities are still recovering from Bavi’s impacts.

Long-range forecasts suggest the disturbance may eventually turn northeastward, reducing the likelihood of another direct strike on heavily populated areas, though officials continue to urge residents across the western Pacific to monitor forecasts closely.