‘The Odyssey”s Early Data Confirms Christopher Nolan’s Star Power

Christopher Nolan may be done with the superhero genre, but his own superpowers are as potent as ever. He’s become arguably the most bankable Hollywood director today. Yes, that’s in large part due to the sheer quality of his work. But we can actually quantify exactly what separates him from the pack.

Nolan’s movies tend to win over audiences late in their release and draw in people who don’t usually go to the movies, at levels his competitors rarely match. These are the true levers to the filmmaker’s odds-defying, consistent success. And we’ve got the data to prove it. 

Understanding Nolan’s edge requires us to begin with in-genre comparisons. His recent historical epics have consistently outperformed similar titles by other directors. According to Greenlight Analytics, in its final tracking wave before release, Oppenheimer’s Awareness (53 percent) and Theatrical Intent (47 percent) topped the final tracking scores for Napoleon, Ferrari and Nuremberg while roughly matching Gladiator II’s intent with notably less awareness. No one else taking a trip through history’s memory is enticing audiences at quite the same frequency. 

The Odyssey, which will arrive in theaters this Friday, is on a similarly impressive trajectory. General audience Awareness (58 percent) and Theatrical Intent (47 percent) are in very healthy positions as of nine days before release. Crucially, the marketing is reaching more people as its awareness is higher than all but Gladiator II at this point. The anticipated ensemble has already surpassed Oppenheimer on several tracking metrics at similar pre-release points, most notably in Theatrical Intent for Women older than 35 (The Odyssey’s 39 percent vs Oppenheimer’s 30 percent). There are few benchmarks left for the director to beat outside of his own. 

Homer’s The Odyssey is one of our most popular and enduring myths. This adaptation follows the cursed Greek king Odysseus battling mythical monsters and angry gods to survive the seas and reclaim his kingdom after 10 years of fighting in the Trojan War. This story feels thematically aligned with the filmmaker’s previous cinematic ambitions. Inception saw a dream spy’s reality-bending determination to reunite with his children gross $840 million worldwide. Interstellar explored how a heroic father’s love for his children can traverse the universe ($681 million worldwide). World War II-set Dunkirk ($527 million) proved to be a paradigm-shifter within the industry, while Tenet ($365 million) delivered an entirely new take on time travel.  

Sight unseen, Nolan’s entries into the genre garner more goodwill than the average title in the field. But it’s the way in which he accrues such buy-in that is really interesting. 

When movies become events 

It’s not just that audiences want to see a Christopher Nolan film. It’s that his releases inspire a frenzied urgency. Audiences want to see his movies as early as possible and on the biggest screens as possible. They become monocultures in an era of niche echo chambers. 

From 30 days pre-release to nine days out, The Odyssey’s audience is showing a swelling wave of deep enthusiasm. General audience Opening Weekend Intent has risen by 17.4 percentage points, a strong signal of upfront demand, per Greenlight. Premium Large Format, or those willing to pay higher ticket prices for IMAX, Dolby, and 4DX screenings, has risen by 3.4 percentage points, underscoring ticket sales upside. And Opening Weekend Intent among aware audiences (those that know about the film) has skyrocketed by 33 percentage points. 

That’s far better than the movement Superman (+0.5, +2.3, -1.8) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps (+2.1, +3.4, -0.5) showed in the same pre-release stretches. Both superhero properties see opening weekend intent remain relatively flat during this span. Meanwhile, The Odyssey’s opening weekend commitment is spiking by an abnormal amount. Two examples do not make a trend, but you get the idea. There’s a voracious audience hunger out there made all the more impressive by Nolan’s work outside of standard franchise fare (though I’m sure someone at Universal will ask Nolan if he wants to make The Iliad next). 

Nolan movies attract non-cinephiles

It’s not just Nolan’s compelling non-linear narratives, practical in-camera spectacle and genre-juicing stories that set him apart (or his impressive scarf collection). It’s his ability to bring casual moviegoers—and even people who usually prefer watching at home—into theaters that makes him a true box office star in his own league. Folks who don’t usually buy theater tickets are far more likely to for a Nolan flick, and that’s real power.

As of this writing, The Odyssey’s Theatrical Intent for casual moviegoers is running slightly ahead of where recent $80-ish million openers Project Hail Mary, The Mandalorian & Grogu and Avatar: Fire and Ash all debuted, per Greenlight. Specifically, casual moviegoers under 35 are running 10 percent higher than in the first two films. 

Casual female moviegoers over 35 follow the same generous pattern, and young casual moviegoers, both male and female, are tracking well ahead of those films. Among infrequent moviegoers who prefer watching at home, the upcoming ancient Greek epic is tied with Mando among men under 35, ahead of Project Hail Mary in the same group, and 10 percent+ ahead of both Mando and Project Hail Mary among women under 35. This is practically found money, given how rarely these viewers actually head to theaters. 

Urgency, enthusiasm and varied audiences all contribute to the big box office. It’s a simple formula, but difficult to execute. The Odyssey looks to be another example in Christopher Nolan’s long track record of drawing out all of the above, especially for non-franchise fare. In a world of subjective art and overblown expectations, he is the closest thing to a guarantee that Hollywood has to offer.