Donald Trump’s approval rating shifts among Christians
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has moved in opposite directions among two major Christian groups this year, rising steadily among born-again Protestants while declining among Roman Catholics, Newsweek analysis shows.
Trump’s approval among born-again Protestants increased from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July, according to five national Marquette Law School polls. Over the same period, his approval among Catholics fell from 54 percent to 45 percent, with most of the decline occurring between April and May. This has left Trump with a plus 22 net approval rating among born-again Protestants in July, compared with minus 10 among Catholics—a 32-point gap.
The shift among Catholics has unfolded against the backdrop of Trump’s public tensions with Pope Leo XIV earlier this year over the war with Iran and immigration. While both parties ultimately downplayed their feud, Leo repeatedly called for peace and urged greater compassion toward migrants. Trump, meanwhile, has pushed back against the pontiff’s interventions.
The polling does not establish a direct connection between those disputes and the decline, but it comes amid a widening divide between Catholics and a born-again Protestant constituency that remains central to Trump’s political base.
When Newsweek put this analysis to the White House for comment, spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said: “There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump, and his strong record proves it. President Trump ended the weaponization of the federal government against people of faith, proudly defended and expanded our religious rights, pardoned pro-life activists, stopped the chemical mutilation of our nation’s children, and protected parents’ rights.”
“On the other hand, Democrats shamelessly weaponized the full weight of the federal government against people of faith, trampled on Christians’ sacred First Amendment rights, and pushed irreversible mutilation surgeries on innocent children.”
What the Polls Show
The divergence between born-again Protestants and Catholics became most pronounced after April.
Among born-again Protestants, Trump’s 56-percent approval rating in January edged up to 57 percent in April and May, hit 59 percent in June and 61 percent in July—this means Trump’s net approval with the group rose from +12 to +22 in seven months.
But Catholic approval followed a different course. It slipped from 54 percent in January to 53 percent in April before falling to 45 percent in May and 43 percent in June. It recovered slightly to 45 percent in July, marking an 18-point swing in net approval—from +8 in January to -10 by July.
The pattern was not uniform across Protestant groups. Among mainline Protestants—generally more moderate and less theologically conservative—Trump’s approval was 47 percent in January and 47 percent in July, despite fluctuating during this period.
Nationally, Trump’s approval fell from 42 percent in January to 38 percent in May and June, before ticking up to 40 percent in July. That means the five-point gain among born-again Protestants came as his overall rating slipped slightly, while the nine-point drop among Catholics was far larger than the national change.
The five polls surveyed between 1,002 and 1,514 adults, with overall margins of error ranging from plus or minus 2.7 to 3.5 percentage points. Each used a new national sample rather than following the same respondents over time. The January poll was carried out from 21-28, April’s between 8-16, May’s from 20-26, June’s between 9-15 and July’s 22-29.
Trump’s Feud With the Pope
The divergence in Trump’s standing among Christian groups comes after Trump’s public feud with Pope Leo.
Trump’s immigration crackdown drew criticism from Leo and other Catholic leaders, putting parts of the church hierarchy at odds with conservative Catholics who supported the president’s border policies.
The conflict intensified after the United States entered the war with Iran. Leo repeatedly called for peace and questioned whether the conflict met Catholic standards for a just war. After Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran failed to meet a U.S. deadline, the pope called the threat against the Iranian people “truly unacceptable.” Trump responded by citing Iran’s killing of protesters and arguing that the country could not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump also called Leo “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
The president faced further criticism after sharing an AI-generated image depicting himself as a Christ-like figure, which he later deleted. Trump said he believed the image showed him as a doctor rather than Jesus.
The dispute carries political significance because Leo remains popular with American Catholics across party lines.
A Public Religion Research Institute survey conducted in May found that 56 percent of Americans viewed Leo favorably, compared with 34 percent who viewed Trump favorably. Leo was more popular across most religious groups, while white evangelical Protestants were among the exceptions.
Why Catholic Voters Matter
Catholic voters could be important to Republicans’ prospects in November because they are both a large constituency and less reliably Republican than born-again Protestants.
Catholics accounted for 20 percent of voters in the 2024 presidential election and 22 percent of Trump’s coalition, according to an analysis of validated voters by the Pew Research Center. Trump won the group by 55 percent to 43 percent, after Catholics divided almost evenly between him and Joe Biden in 2020.
Catholics are also more politically divided than Trump’s evangelical base. While Trump won 81 percent of white evangelical Protestant voters in 2024, his 55 percent support among Catholics included substantial differences by race: AP VoteCast found that about 6 in 10 white Catholics backed him, while roughly 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Kamala Harris.
Because Catholics make up a large share of the electorate and are more politically divided than some other religious groups, even small shifts in opinion within the group can be consequential in closely fought districts.
The stakes are heightened by the narrow fight for control of Congress. Democrats need only a handful of additional seats to overturn the Republican House majority and have expanded their target list to 58 GOP-held districts, including seats in swing states. Republicans lost a net 40 House seats during Trump’s first midterm election in 2018.
Trump will not be on the ballot, and presidential approval does not translate directly into support for congressional candidates.
Despite those divisions, Trump retains broad support among Christian voters, many of whom credit him with advancing conservative priorities including abortion restrictions and religious-liberty protections.
He won 62 percent of Protestants and 55 percent of Catholics in 2024, while Christians accounted for 79 percent of his voters, according to the Pew Research Center. That support has persisted even as some church leaders have opposed elements of his immigration and foreign policies.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Matthew Robinson and Robert Greenall
