Europe’s heat-parched land poses risks for next year’s crops

PARCHED soil and scorching heat are threatening Europe’s fall planting season, heightening risks to global food supplies stretched by geopolitical tensions.

The multiple heat waves that have battered Europe this summer have already upended harvests and disrupted critical grain transport routes.

Now, as dry weather persists, concern is turning to next year’s crop, with some farmers already delaying sowing or reconsidering how much land to plant. 

“We should be planting our winter forage for sheep, but we’re holding off until we’ve had some meaningful rain,” said James Mills, who grows wheat, barley, oats and beans in Yorkshire, England.

For wheat, the planting starts in mid-September, “but the land is so unbelievably dry that we probably need an inch or two of rain to make a difference.”

The latest weather concerns come at a time when global food flows are already under threat. Russia and Ukraine have escalated attacks on each other’s grain infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea, renewing concerns over the reliability of shipments from one of the world’s most important breadbaskets.

Meanwhile, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose price risks to key inputs like fertiliser and diesel, while an unusually strong El Nino will keep broader weather concerns firmly in focus.

Wheat futures in Paris and Chicago have gained around 19 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, over the last two months. Corn prices in both markets have soared as well.

The first major crop likely to be affected by the drought is rapeseed, with a planting window during August and September. If the dry conditions persist, the sowing of wheat, barley and rye — all sown in the fall for harvest the following year — could be at risk.

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“We are already waiting for significant rains for rapeseed sowing that should normally take place in late August or early September,” said Benoit Merlo, who farms north of Lyon in France. The goal is to grow “robust” rapeseed, with “enough biomass to face the winter and grow very quickly in the spring.”

To achieve that, “it is difficult to consider sowing rapeseed after Sept 10-15,” he added.

Similar concerns are emerging across many of Europe’s top growing areas.

In Bavaria, one of Germany’s most important agricultural regions, rainfall since Apr 1 is the lowest since 2015, while Spain’s major grain-growing region of Castile-Leon has received about two-thirds less rain than the long-term norm, according to a Bloomberg analysis of data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Meteomatics. 

“If current dry soil conditions persist, there could be delays in preparing the land and in crop development, leading to increased economic risks for farming operations,” said Agustín Miranda Sotillos, managing director at ASAJA, Spain’s main farmers’ group.

In the UK too, crop yields are sliding below long-term averages as the heat takes a toll on the country’s already patchy harvest, according to the latest data from UK farming industry body AHDB.

Yields for winter wheat are seen at 13 per cent below the five-year average. The outlook for spring barley looks worse, with the crop poised for the lowest yields in records dating back to 1999.

Grain acreage in Europe — the fastest-warming continent — has already been shrinking gradually over the last 25 years, leaving it vulnerable to global and domestic supply shocks. 

A fifth heat wave scorched north-west Europe this week, but cooler, wetter weather is forecast to move in over the weekend. The shift is set to boost rain next week, with weather models and analysis from MetDesk showing increased rainfall through August.

However, meteorologists and farmers warn that sustained rainfall is needed to replenish soil moisture and long-term water deficits.

“We had 2.75 millimeters of rain last Wednesday morning, and it had gone by noon,” said Mark Meadows, who grows wheat, barley and rapeseed in Warwickshire, England.

Still, things can change if a lot of steady rainfall comes before the bulk of fall sowing gets underway. 

“Because of the relatively early harvest, everything is probably two weeks ahead of an average year,” said Andrew Blenkiron, managing director of Elveden Farms, one of Britain’s largest vegetable growers that also produces wheat and barley. 

Longer-term weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and analysis from MetDesk suggest hot, dry conditions are likely to endure through October before a shift to much wetter weather in November. That might be too late for many growers.

“The outlook for this fall is still on the drier side, especially in north-central Europe, including northern France, Germany, and Poland. I don’t think it will be nearly as bad as this past summer, so planting should be able to occur,” said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Xweather.

“However, with soil moisture levels remaining below normal in many areas, we will see stress on germination and early growth of rapeseed and winter wheat.” BLOOMBERG