A Top Russian Economist Warned Of an Impending Social Crisis. He Was Fired.

The chief economist of Russia’s state-controlled development bank VEB was fired after presenting a report warning that the country would face a large social crisis as a result of the continued economic impact of the war.

CNBC detailed that Andrei Klepach said Russia can’t win a prolonged war of attrition after more than four years of military conflict.

“I believe Russia won’t collapse, but I’m almost certain that we’ll end up in a social crisis. We won’t collapse economically, but our lag will widen, with all the ensuing consequences,” he said in a May presentation. The content, however, was reported more recently.

The outlet cited independent Russian outlet The Bell, which cited unnamed sources who claimed that the firing was directly linked to the assessment.

The Russian embassy to the UK told CNBC that the country’s fiscal position is “significantly stronger” than those of some Western countries. “The Russian economy remains resilient, as does the will of our people,” a spokesperson said.

“Attempts to undermine Russia through economic pressure have not produced the results their authors expected,” the spokesperson added.

Another report claimed that analysts worry that the country’s shaky economy could actually lead President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine even further.

CNBC noted in another report that so far Russia’s economy has performed slightly better than expected, experiencing some growth despite economic sanctions and its ongoing war against Ukraine. But the economy is being propped up by military spending, high taxes, and subsidized bank lending.

From April to June, Russia’s economy grew by 1.3 percent, the best the economy has done since the first quarter of 2025, according to the website Trading Economics. The quarterly figure was also an improvement over the first quarter of this year when the Russian economy contracted by 0.2 percent.

Analysts worry that the Russian economy’s overall shakiness might lead Russia to take aggressive action in a desperate attempt to end the war as soon as possible.

“If I were Putin, God forbid, I would probably decide that it is in my interest to escalate now and try to finish the war on my terms, than wait until the money ends sometime in the future,” Alex Kolyandr, director for Europe at consulting firm Eurasia Group, told the outlet.

Elsewhere, different NATO countries said they are taking measures to protect critical infrastructure against a false flag attack from Russia.

Reuters detailed that Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia have made claims of such nature. The former said Moscow is considering the stage attack and the other three warned of acts of sabotage.

Another recent report claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering a limited assault on a NATO country to test the alliance.

The assessment from U.S. intelligence officials claimed such a scenario could take place in the next few years, with another possibility being a cyberattack.

The Wall Street Journal detailed last week that previous assessments believed that Putin wouldn’t make such a decision while still fighting in Ukraine, but the thinking changed earlier this year as the war continues and Kyiv manages to strike deep into Russian territory and inflict damage on its oil industry while keeping the front lines largely unchanged.

The goal of attacking a NATO country, the report added, would be fracturing the transatlantic alliance. Such an attack could take place between this fall and 2029. The likelihood of it happening is low but grows as time goes by and Putin does not manage to make strategic gains in the war.