Nasdaq faces first key resistance as uncertainty mounts
Published Mon, Sep 7, 2026 · 07:00 AM
THE Nasdaq 100 has fully recovered from July’s sharp correction, but the calendar ahead offers little room for complacency. The index closed at 29,461 on Wednesday (Sep 2), gaining 1.24 per cent ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls release, which put the sharp decline at the start of September behind it. August itself delivered a 4.2 per cent gain, the Nasdaq 100’s best August performance since 2021, and recovered most of the ground lost in July’s 6.6 per cent slide, its steepest monthly decline since March 2025. Beneath the recovery, however, sits a macro backdrop that has grown palpably more hostile to long-duration growth stocks since the Jackson Hole meeting.
The Federal Reserve remains a key source of uncertainty. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at Jackson Hole on Aug 28, telling markets that inflation work “is not done” and reaffirming the Fed’s 2 per cent PCE target. Expectations for a September rate hike subsequently increased to above 60 per cent, before easing to roughly 52 per cent after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled on Wednesday that he would support holding rates steady at the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting, provided upcoming August inflation data confirms continued disinflation. The rare public divergence between the chair and a sitting governor highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next policy move. Treasury yields, which had probed a 20-month high near 4.7 per cent, retreated modestly on Waller’s remarks, providing a tailwind for growth equities.
Two further headwinds compound the pressure. US strikes on Iranian targets in early September have reintroduced concerns over oil prices and inflation. The upcoming economic data is equally consequential. With August payrolls now behind the market, focus turns to the August CPI report on Sep 11 and the FOMC meeting.
Corporate earnings offer a counterweight. Nvidia surged nearly 9 per cent following its Aug 26 report, with revenue of US$96 billion and 106 per cent year-on-year growth reaffirming the optimism around AI capital expenditure. Broadcom followed shortly after, though its share-price reaction was more muted.
The technical setup
The daily chart tells a story of correction, recovery, and now consolidation. From the Jun 2 all-time high near 30,762, the index shed roughly 11 per cent to bottom near 27,200 on Jul 29 before staging a sharp August rebound. Wednesday’s advance has returned price to the underside of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 29,497, leaving the index at its first key resistance. Beneath it sits a tight support cluster comprising the 50-day SMA at 29,223 and the 100-day SMA at 29,111, separated by barely a hundred points, ahead of the trend-defining 200-day SMA at 27,094. All four averages remain in bullish alignment and are rising, which suggests that the medium-term uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.
The wider price structure also remains constructive, with an ascending channel drawn off the April 2026 low. The channel’s upper rail projects into the 30,700 area, close to June’s peak, creating a confluence resistance that will require a genuine catalyst to breach. Meanwhile, the lower rail runs through the late-July low near 27,200, reinforcing the 27,000-27,500 zone as a meaningful support.
Key levels ahead
A daily close decisively above the 20-day SMA at 29,497 would signal that August’s recovery is set to extend, opening scope towards the 30,000, 30,360 and the 30,762 ceiling. A soft CPI print on Sep 11 or a Warsh climb-down at the September FOMC meeting would be the most plausible triggers. Conversely, rejection at the 20-day SMA and a break beneath the 29,100-29,223 SMA cluster would increase the risk of a retest of the late-July low near 27,200. A break below the 200-day SMA at 27,094 would represent a more significant deterioration in the technical outlook.
The balance of risks
The Nasdaq’s technical posture is constructive but unconfirmed. August’s recovery was credible, with the bullish moving-average structure and the strong AI earnings providing support. Additionally, Waller’s dovish counter to Warsh has taken some of the immediate policy risk off the table, but the reprieve is conditional on cooperative inflation data.
Against that stand a Fed still openly split on its next move, Treasury yields near 20-month highs, and a data calendar that could redraw the map in short order. A measured approach is warranted. Bulls may look to accumulate on pullbacks towards the 29,100-29,223 support cluster with 27,200 as a stop reference. A weekly close above 30,000 would invite trend-followers back in size.
The writer is dealing manager at PhillipCapital
