How homeowners should prepare for ‘supersized’ El Niño this winter

Meteorologists are warning of a “supersized” El Niño potentially bringing heavy rains and flooding to the U.S. in the coming months, with those living in coastal areas facing the greater risks.

Fueled by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, is set to become “very strong” this fall and winter, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement last week.

Communities across the U.S. are likely to feel the impact of what is expected to be the largest El Niño in at least 1,000 years, which promises to make 2027 an even hotter year than this one – and likely the hottest ever recorded, as climate scientist Gavin Schmidt warned.

What will happen next remains unclear, as “no two El Niños are exactly the same,” Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, told Newsweek. But given the expected strength of this El Niño event, we can get a pretty good idea of what might occur.

“Much of the West Coast, especially California, has increased chances of heavy precipitation and flooding,” Handel said. “Our last El Niño of 2023-24 produced record rainfall for San Diego in late January, and the El Niño of 1997-98 produced the wettest February on record for Los Angeles and San Francisco.”

“Above-average temperatures are more likely across the Upper Midwest and much of the Northern Tier of the U.S. more generally,” he added. “The Southeast is more prone to heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather. The Northern Rockies and northern Cascades tend to experience a reduced snowpack.”

What U.S. Homeowners Should Know About El Niño

Heavy rain and flooding – which is a concern both for the West Coast and the Southeast, according to Handel – can be particularly devastating for homeowners on the path of destruction.

Handel explained: “Heavy rain and flooding could produce mudslides in vulnerable terrain across much of the West Coast and surrounding areas. Increased storminess may produce episodes of high winds along parts of the West Coast. Severe weather risks may be elevated for parts of the Southeast. The East Coast is more prone to coastal storms.

“None of these potential weather events are guaranteed, but homeowners should be prepared for elevated risks of impacts.”

The most common property insurance claims during an El Niño winter include wind and roof damage from stronger, more frequent Pacific storms, according to Mark Friedlander, senior director of media relations at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I).

“Additionally, we see water damage and burst pipes from atypical cold snaps in the South and flooding from heavier-than-normal rainfall in California and along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida,” Friedlander told Newsweek.

Tree and debris damage from high winds is common across numerous regions, Friedlander added, and “winter storm and freeze losses also tend to spike in areas unaccustomed to sustained cold snaps.”

What Experts Suggest Homeowners Do To Prepare

Friedlander urges homeowners to be prepared for flood damage, which requires a separate policy from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or a private flood insurer – something that many Americans lack.

Despite the growing frequency of severity of flooding across the country, with nearly every U.S. county having experienced flooding in the past few decades, only 4 percent of homeowners nationwide had flood insurance as of 2025, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The nation’s flood insurance gap stems partly from the fact that many homeowners can no longer afford additional coverage after years of rising premiums. But it is also driven by a persistent belief that their properties are not at risk of flooding, a misconception that recent disasters have increasingly exposed.

“FEMA has noted that over the past decade almost one-third of flood insurance claims from the National Flood Insurance Program came from structures outside currently mapped high-risk flood areas. Structures in low-lying areas may be particularly vulnerable,” Denali Pinto, research data analyst at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, told Newsweek. “To find out your risk, you can search online for ‘what is my flood zone’ and enter your address at FEMA’s Map Service Center.”

He added: “It can flood anywhere it rains, not just in high-risk zones. Earth movement and landslide damage, which often accompanies saturated soil in heavy-rain events, is typically covered by a difference in conditions policy but may be restricted in high-risk landslide areas like California.

“Sewer and drain backup is important for homeowners that can be easily added as an endorsement to your standard home policy.”

Homeowners who do not already have a separate policy for flood damage should contact their insurance agent and secure a policy “now given the standard 30-day NFIP waiting period,” Friedlander said, adding: “With a potential federal government shutdown at the end of September, we recommend purchasing coverage immediately as new NFIP policies will not be available during a shutdown.”

In terms of prevention, Pinto said: “If you know your property is prone to flooding, then be ready with sandbags ahead of big storms. Also, clear out your gutters and any drainage near your home.

“It’s also good practice to keep a few days of food and water ready for emergencies and a large powerbank for charging electronics if the power or water goes out. Pay attention to the forecasts, and never drive into moving water on roadways, even if it seems fairly shallow. It could also be a good idea to purchase a NOAA weather radio to get weather updates even if the power goes out.”

In general, “measures like portable flood barriers, increasing defensible space around homes to resist wildfires, and installing hurricane tie-downs on roofs may be very cost-effective,” Ed Kearns, Managing Director and Head of Physical Risk Research & Development at First Street, part of MSCI, told Newsweek.

“Other measures, such as elevating home foundations, installing active fire suppression systems on rooftops, or entirely replacing roofs are typically much more expensive and should be carefully considered,” he added.

If these preventative measures can stop the flood waters from entering the home, or avoiding igniting in a wildfire during the drier season, or the roof stays on intact during a hurricane – that would mean essentially zeroing the potential losses caused by something like a strong El Niño.

“Again, the user should consider the costs of implementation versus the potential losses for their structure,” Kearns said.

Homeowners in areas at risk should also create a home inventory and document belongings and property with photos and/or video, Friedlander recommended, as a detailed home inventory can help expedite claims filing.

“Additionally, clear gutters, drains and storm drains near your property, review evacuation routes and have emergency supplies on hand (at least seven-day supplies of non-perishable food and water – 1 gallon per person per day – and medications), and a ‘go bag’ with essential supplies and important documents in case of an urgent evacuation,” Friedlander said, adding: “Don’t wait until the winter storms begin. Prepare now.”

Which Parts of the Country Should Be on Alert

“The biggest risks will be tied to where the storm track sets up and how active it becomes,” Crystal Egger, President of Monarch Weather Consulting, told Newsweek.

“I would caution homeowners against thinking, ‘a strong El Niño equals a wet winter everywhere.’ I remember the 1997-98 winter as a very wet and stormy one for California, while 2015-16 was a very different story despite also being a strong El Niño,” she said. “El Niño can point us toward a pattern, but it doesn’t tell us exactly what every storm will do.”

The southern tier of the U.S., including California, the Southwest, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast, “tends to experience a wetter winter during El Niño,” Emily J. Becker, deputy director at the Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and Research Associate Professor at Rosenstiel School for Marine, Atmospheric & Earth Science, University of Miami, told Newsweek.

She added: “This impact is somewhat less reliable in California and more consistent through the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

“The East Coast also can experience a wetter winter. The Ohio River valley and the Pacific Northwest can be drier than average. Also, winter tends to be warmer through the northern central U.S. (and through much of Canada), especially earlier in the winter.”

A stronger El Niño means these impacts are more likely to occur, but not necessarily likely to be extra-strong, according to experts.

Egger said that the southern half of the U.S. is where she would be watching most closely for the impact of El Niño, particularly California and the Southwest, the southern Rockies, and parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.

She added: “A strong El Niño typically strengthens and shifts the Pacific jet farther south, which can support a more active storm track and increased precipitation across parts of the southern U.S.

“For California, the Sierra Nevada and other higher elevations are particularly important because that added moisture can translate into significant mountain snow when temperatures are cold enough. That snowpack is also critical to water supplies across the West.”

Egger also noted she would be watching the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Florida for an increased potential for severe storms, heavy rainfall and strong winds.

“The exact location and timing of those threats will depend on the individual weather pattern as we move through the season,” she concluded.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Cristina Diciu.