Texas Latinos are turning against Republican Party
Latino voters in three competitive Texas House districts favor Democrats by 56 percent to 36 percent, according to a new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll.
That movement could affect control of Congress as closely divided battlegrounds can be decided by relatively small changes among major voting blocs.
Republicans entered the 2026 cycle hoping President Donald Trump’s improved showing with Latino voters in 2024 represented a lasting political realignment. However, the new figures suggest that support was conditional, with economic frustration and opposition to the administration’s immigration enforcement giving Democrats an opening.
Democratic and Republican candidates in districts along the Mexico border, suburban Fort Worth and the Austin-San Antonio corridor face a substantially changed electoral landscape.
Democrats Are Building a Texas Lead
Hart Research conducted the 2026 Latino Battleground survey for TelevisaUnivision from August 6 to 17 among 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 competitive congressional districts. The Texas sample comprised 300 interviews in the 23rd, 28th and 35th districts.
The reported margin of sampling error for the full survey was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Among Latino respondents in the three Texas districts, the self-reported 2024 presidential vote was tied at 44 percent each for Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
When asked about the 2026 congressional ballot, however, 56 percent supported Democratic candidates and 36 percent backed Republicans.
“Latino voters aren’t locked into one party,” Kate Coleman, a senior vice president at TelevisaUnivision, told Axios. “They’re paying close attention and making decisions based on who shows up for them, and how they’re showing up.”
The Texas sample covered three House contests. In the 23rd Congressional District, Republican Brandon Herrera, Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and independent Ben Mendoza are running for an open seat.
Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar hopes to hold the seat in the 28th District against challenges from Republican Tano Tijerina and Green Party candidate Marlon Duran. And in the 35th District, Democrat Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz are vying to replace Democratic Representative Greg Casar.
A Larger Battleground Movement
Across the 17 competitive House districts surveyed, Democrats led Republicans by 58 percent to 35 percent among Latino registered voters on the generic congressional ballot.
That 23-point margin was twice the 11-point advantage Harris held over Trump in the same respondents’ self-reported 2024 vote.
Among California respondents in the battleground survey, 57 percent favored Democratic congressional candidates and 33 percent backed Republicans.
Latino respondents in two Florida swing districts moved from a 1-point Trump advantage in their self-reported 2024 vote to a 13-point Democratic lead on the 2026 ballot.
The survey also found that 11 percent of Latino respondents who said they backed Trump in 2024 now support Democratic congressional candidates.
The findings do not establish how individual districts will vote. Generic-ballot preferences can change before Election Day, while turnout, candidate quality and local issues will shape each contest separately.
Prices and Immigration Drive Voter Discontent
Economic pressure appears to be the clearest source of Republican vulnerability.
Sixty-five percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of prices and the cost of living.
When asked which party they trusted more to lower prices, 62 percent chose Democrats in Congress and 36 percent selected Republicans.
Immigration enforcement presents another problem.
Sixty-two percent disapproved of the administration’s approach to enforcement and deportations, while 64 percent gave Immigration and Customs Enforcement an unfavorable rating.
Among Latino independents, 65 percent gave ICE an unfavorable rating.
Those results do not amount to a wholesale rejection of border enforcement. They indicate dissatisfaction with how the administration has implemented its policies, alongside concern about household costs.
Overall, 63 percent disapproved of Trump’s job performance and 36 percent approved.
National Polling Shows Broader Latino Discontent
A national Pew Research Center survey provided an earlier indication of Latino dissatisfaction with the administration.
Conducted in English and Spanish from October 6 to 16, 2025, the poll found that 70 percent of Latino adults disapproved of Trump’s job performance and 65 percent disapproved of his administration’s handling of immigration.
The Latino sample comprised 4,923 adults, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Pew used a combination of online and live telephone interviews, with results weighted to national population benchmarks.
Its scope differed substantially from the new Hart Research poll. Pew surveyed a nationally representative sample of Latino adults, while Hart surveyed Latino registered voters in 17 competitive House districts.
The two polls therefore show a similar direction of opinion but measure different populations.
Meanwhile, a May UnidosUS poll, which surveyed 3,000 Latino registered voters nationally and across 32 competitive congressional districts, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, found that 54 percent said they would support a Democratic House candidate in the 2026 election, matching the Democratic share of the Latino vote in CBS News’ 2024 House exit polling.
In the UnidosUS poll, conducted by BSP Research and Shaw & Company Research from April 27 to May 14, 27 percent said they would support a Republican candidate, while 19 percent were undecided.
What Happens Next
With the midterm campaign in its final stretch, Republicans must determine whether their 2024 support can be recovered. Democrats, meanwhile, still need to convert favorable battleground polling into turnout on November 3.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Shakeema Edwards.
