Hormuz Under Fire: Fresh Ship Attack Raises Global Oil Alarm

On Sunday, Iran stated that it had attacked an unmanned American ship which was trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, adding another point of contention to the renewed hostilities between Tehran and Washington over one of the world’s most significant energy passages. The U.S. military hasn’t confirmed the attack yet.

The assertion came one day after the U.S. military stated that it had attacked three Iranian oil tankers in response to an Iranian missile strike on U.S. Navy warships. Once again, these developments have increased worries that the conflict might further limit commercial shipping via the strait and continue to exert pressure on global oil markets.

In June, the United States and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire, but the fighting has still gone on from time to time. Since then, the two sides have carried out attacks on military targets, oil tankers and commercial shipping, and the negotiations concerning the conflict have not resulted in a permanent settlement.

A Chokepoint Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is of great significance to global energy markets because of the amount of oil and gas which usually travels through the strait.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that, in the first six months of 2025, approximately 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait, which is about one-quarter of the global maritime oil trade. During that period, more than 20% of the global liquefied natural gas trade went through Hormuz.

The waterway has remained disrupted since the start of the conflict; according to data from the EIA, the amount of oil passing through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, as compared with 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Iran has on several occasions threatened or restricted shipping going through the strait during the conflict. As a response, the United States has carried out military operations with the aim of either maintaining or reopening maritime access, while the launching of attacks on tankers has also made commercial transit more difficult.

Shipping Disruptions Hit Oil Markets

The latest attacks have come as commercial traffic through Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels.

An average of 10 commodity ships crossed the strait each day over the preceding 10 days, according to data analytics company Kpler. The same report said Brent crude futures were trading around $97 a barrel, up 9% over five days and 19% over the previous month, while West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $92.27.

“This is a reflection of continued conflict and exchange of fire. The supply deficits globally are persisting, and there is little end to these shortages,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

The market pressure has extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco’s Jizan facilities were struck for the second time in a month on Sept. 7, citing Financial Times reporting based on two people familiar with the matter.

Traders have become concerned that long-lasting disruptions might continue to put pressure on global inventories, and the EIA, in its September outlook, stated that global oil stocks had dropped by approximately 400 million barrels between 2026 and the end of the report period, predicting that Brent crude would average about $90 a barrel in the second half of the year.

U.S. Consumers Face Higher Fuel Costs

On Sept. 7, the national average price of gasoline had reached $4.15 per gallon, up from $2.98 on Feb. 28, as stated by Al Jazeera, citing AAA data. This amounted to an increase of approximately 39% since the beginning of the conflict. The price of diesel had reached a record high of $5.85 per gallon before going above $5.90, according to the same report.

“US diesel prices have never been this high, and now the countdown starts for the trickle-down to everything consumers buy,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X.

Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs has separately tracked the additional fuel costs borne by U.S. households since the conflict began. Its Iran War Energy Cost Tracker is designed to measure the extra cost of gasoline and diesel paid by American consumers.

Outlook for Oil Supply and Diplomacy

The EIA expects restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to persist through the fourth quarter of 2026. It estimates that an average of 5.7 million barrels per day of Middle East crude production could remain shut in during the quarter, with most regional production returning close to pre-conflict levels by the second quarter of 2027.

The agency also expects alternative export routes to help maintain some oil flows while the strait remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipeline infrastructure that can bypass part of the waterway, although the available capacity is substantially smaller than the volumes that normally transit Hormuz.

“OPEC crude production can only increase once flows are normal in both directions through the Strait of Hormuz,” June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

Diplomatic efforts remain central to the outlook for shipping and energy markets.

“Markets have not completely lost hope for a deal, but confidence is clearly eroding. The longer talks drag on without visible progress, and the more complex the reported demands become, the greater the scepticism that a workable agreement can be reached quickly,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Al Jazeera.

The ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz leave the world’s energy market vulnerable to additional disruptions in supply. Pressure on the market could be reduced if there is sustained improvement in shipping traffic or if progress is made in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, whereas more attacks on ships or on energy infrastructure could continue to keep oil prices high.