Sweden’s Election: Who Will Hold the Balance of Power?

Swedish voters are choosing all 349 members of the Riksdag in a closely contested election that could determine whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson remains in office or former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson returns to power. The result could also determine whether the Sweden Democrats enter government for the first time.

Polling shows that Andersson’s centre-left group has a slight advantage over Kristersson’s right-wing alliance, although the contest has become more closely contested in the last few weeks.

According to recent projections quoted by Reuters, the four centre-left parties have about 175 to 180 seats, as compared with approximately 169 to 174 seats for the right-wing bloc, so that the 175-seat majority figure is at the heart of the coalition calculations. However, these are projections, not the actual election results.

The question is therefore what will happen to the Sweden Democrats, the country’s second-largest party following the 2022 election; if the right does well, then the party could make the transition from its present role as an external member of Kristersson’s government to one of being in the cabinet for the first time.

How the Sweden Democrats Became a Power Broker

In the 2022 election, the Sweden Democrats secured 73 seats and thus surpassed the Moderates led by Kristersson to become the second-largest party in the Riksdag.

Kristersson established a three-party government together with the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, and the Sweden Democrats supported this government under the Tidö Agreement.

The arrangement enabled the Sweden Democrats to have a great deal of influence on policy without assigning the party any ministerial positions.

In April, Kristersson stated that his Moderate Party intended to enter a four-party majority government with the Sweden Democrats should the right-wing bloc win the election.

“After the election, we will form a four-party majority government,” Kristersson told a press conference.

“I will form and, as prime minister, lead that government and … in that government, the Sweden Democrats will have a great deal of policy influence and important ministerial positions. It is natural that, among other things, it will be about migration and integration.”

The announcement removed much of the uncertainty over whether the Sweden Democrats could enter government under a second Kristersson administration.

The Sweden Democrats were founded in 1988 and have faced scrutiny over the party’s early links to Nazi and white-supremacist movements. In 2025, the party published a historical review of its origins, while leader Jimmie Åkesson apologized for antisemitism associated with the party’s history.

Åkesson has led the party since 2005. Its rise from a fringe movement to the second-largest party in the Riksdag has made it central to the formation of a right-wing government.

What Åkesson Is Demanding

Åkesson has sought a substantial share of ministerial positions in a future right-wing government, arguing that cabinet representation should reflect the Sweden Democrats’ electoral strength.

“I would consider them, including prime minister, to be very significant. If we are the biggest party we should proportionally have three of them,” he told Sveriges Radio’s Ekot.

The portfolios he identified as particularly important included finance, foreign affairs, justice and defense. He has also called for the party to have responsibility for migration policy.

The demand matters because the Sweden Democrats could become larger than the Moderates again, even if Kristersson remains the right-wing bloc’s preferred prime minister. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine how much influence the party ultimately receives.

The Liberals Could Decide the Arithmetic

The party is hovering around Sweden’s 4% national threshold for representation in the Riksdag, making its performance potentially important to the right-wing bloc’s ability to secure a majority.

Sweden uses a proportional electoral system for the Riksdag. A party generally needs at least 4% of the national vote to receive seats, although a party can qualify for constituency seats by receiving at least 12% in an individual constituency.

Votes for parties that do not meet the relevant threshold do not simply get transferred to another party; rather, seats are allocated among parties that qualify under the electoral rules.

The Liberals previously opposed bringing the Sweden Democrats into government but have since moved away from that position. A right-wing victory combined with a Liberal result could therefore make a four-party government involving the Sweden Democrats more feasible.

Andersson Makes Security a Campaign Issue

Andersson has used the final phase of the campaign to raise questions about national security and the Sweden Democrats’ links to Russia.

The issue followed reports concerning a Sweden Democrat official accused of promoting pro-Kremlin narratives and maintaining links to a Russian state organization while serving in a parliamentary role. The allegations have become particularly sensitive since Sweden joined NATO in 2024.

“These are extremely serious allegations as Russia is the greatest threat to Sweden,” she said.

The allegations have been disputed and politically contested, making attribution important. Kristersson has said the official should be removed if the claims are proven, while the issue has become part of Andersson’s argument over whether the Sweden Democrats should receive ministerial responsibility.

Crime, Immigration and the Economy

The election is also being fought over crime, immigration, welfare and the cost of living.

Kristersson has highlighted his government’s policies on organized crime and immigration, while the opposition has argued that economic pressures and social inequality remain significant concerns. Both major blocs support increased defense spending and continued support for Ukraine, limiting the extent to which foreign policy separates them.

Crime and immigration remain particularly important because they are central to the Sweden Democrats’ political platform and to the government’s cooperation with the party since 2022.

The polling stations in Sweden will remain open until 8 p.m. on Sept. 13. According to the Swedish Election Authority, preliminary counting will start as soon as voting has finished, with the first preliminary results anticipated at about 9 p.m. and an initial provisional assignment of Riksdag seats generally being available at around 10:30 p.m., depending on the speed with which the various districts report.

The county administrative boards in Sweden will start the final count on September 14th, with the later-arriving advance and overseas ballots being taken into account in the following counting procedure. The final result for the Riksdag is expected to be confirmed about a week after the day of the election.

The five figures and the political consequences will therefore be under close observation on election night, whether the center-left group attains or goes beyond 175 seats, whether the right-wing group can also reach or exceed that number, the Liberals manage to clear the 4 per cent threshold, how many seats the Sweden Democrats win and which group can gather sufficient parliamentary support to form a government.

The Sweden Democrats see the election as an opportunity to move from having an influence in parliament to gaining power at the executive level.

The outcome will decide not only who becomes prime minister but also which coalition will be able to secure the support of the Riksdag in the closely divided assembly.

The outcome in terms of the final distribution of power will be less a matter of which single party reaches the end first and more a question of which combination of parties is able to obtain 175 seats or else win the confidence of the Riksdag.