Democrat James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton In Texas’ Senate Race In An Ominous Sign For Republicans.
A new poll Shows Democrat James Talarico with a small lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
The NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Group poll has Talarico ahead 46 percent to Paxton’s 43 percent. However, the lead was within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. 8 percent of respondents said they remain undecided.
Texas would be a key pickup for Democrats, who need to hold on to all of the seats they have while flipping four Republican seats to secure a Senate majority. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in 38 years, with Lloyd Bentsen’s re-election in November 1988 being the last victory.
Other recent polls have also shown Talarico with an edge as well. A ReconMR poll released last week had Talarico’s ahead of Paxton by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. An Emerson College Polling, sponsored by Nexstar Media, had Talarico leading by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent in mid-September.
Talarico, a Texas state legislator, has consistently polled well against Paxton. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Lean” Republican to toss-up in late August. Texas tends to favor Republicans in statewide elections; no Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1993.
The political landscape favors Democrats heading into the midterms, according to several polls. For example, Silver Bulletin, which tracks numerous polls, has Democrats ahead on the generic ballot by 8.6 points.
Paxton is also threatened by repeated scandals. In 2023, he was impeached by a Texas House committee for a variety of alleged offenses, including bribery and abuse of public trust. The impeachment included 20 articles; Paxton was acquitted after a trial in the Texas Senate.
In 2015, he was indicted on securities fraud. That case was eventually dismissed in 2025 after an agreement was reached with prosecutors. The Texas Scorecard reported that Paxton admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to complete over 100 hours of community service, 30 hours of ethics training, and to pay full restitution of about $300,000.
Despite these past issues, Paxton was able to defeat longtime Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary challenge. He received President Donald Trump’s endorsement after.
