Laura Loomer Says November Will Be ‘a Bust’ for GOP: What Polling Shows
Conservative influencer and close Donald Trump ally Laura Loomer has predicted “November is going to be a bust” ahead of crunch midterm elections where Democrats are hoping to flip both the Senate and the House.
Losing one, or worse both, chambers of Congress would be a major blow to Trump and significantly restrict his ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his second term in the White House.
In a post on social media platform X, Loomer wrote: “Anyway, November is going to be a bust. We tried. But there’s only so much you can do.”
It comes as polls give the Democratic Party a significant lead in the generic congressional vote ahead of the midterm elections, with Senate seats in traditional Republican strongholds such as Texas and Alaska potentially vulnerable.
Newsweek contacted Loomer and the Republican Party for comment, via X direct message and email respectively, on Tuesday outside of regular office hours and is awaiting a response.
Who Is Laura Loomer?
Loomer is an influential conservative activist and self-styled “investigative journalist” with 1.9 million X followers who hosts the ‘Loomer Unleashed’ show on video streaming platform Rumble.
She accompanied Trump to a number of campaign events during the 2024 presidential election where the then Republican White House nominee described her as a “supporter” and “free spirit.” At an Iowa rally in January 2024, Trump described Loomer as a “very important person, politically.”
In her X post published on Monday, Loomer, who has frequently criticized the Islamic faith, added: “America will learn the hard way about the threat of communism and Islam since it’s not being taken seriously.”
In 2022, the Southern Poverty Law Center, an advocacy group that describes itself as “a catalyst for racial justice,” called Loomer “an anti-Muslim bigot and conspiracy theorist.”
Loomer also expressed irritation at Trump meeting with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani at Gracie Mansion in New York on Monday. The president said Mamdani has the “potential” to “be a great mayor,” angering some conservatives online.
On X, Loomer said: “I am a die hard Trump supporter and today I am feeling demoralized because Mamdani is a full blown communist jihadist. He is the spiritual leader of the communists in America and he met with the President today in NYC less than 45 days before the midterms.”
Mamdani identifies as a social democrat and during a 2025 debate said: “I have never, not once, spoken in support of global jihad.”
Polling
According to an average of nationwide polling between September 2 and 20, conducted by the RealClearPolling website, Democrats had a nationwide lead of 8.5 percentage points in a generic congressional vote with 50.5 percent of the vote against 42 percent for the Republicans.
Over the same period, RealClearPolling found Trump had an average approval rating of -18.5 percentage points, with 58.6 percent of voters disapproving of his performance versus just 40.1 percent who approved.
A survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted by NBC News from September 11 to 15 put Democrats ahead by five points on the generic ballot, while a poll of 1,389 likely voters between September 15 and 18 by Quantus Insights gave them an eight-point lead.
One poll of 1,100 American adults, conducted by the American Research Group between September 16 and 20, found Trump’s approval rating was just 29 percent, the first time he has been below 30 percent in either of his White House terms. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena University poll of 1,503 likely voters, conducted between September 8 and 13, found Democrats were trusted more on seven out of eight important policy areas, consisting of health care, immigration, the deficit, the economy, cost of living, foreign wars and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Republicans enjoyed only a narrow two-point lead on artificial intelligence. The survey had a 2.9 percentage point margin of error.
As of its most-recent update on September 21, Decision Desk HQ, an election analytics website, gave Democrats a 70 percent chance of securing the House in November though the Senate was closer a 52 percent probability of Democrat victory.
Prediction market Kalshi gives Democratic candidate State Representative Talarico a 59 percent chance of beating GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton to take a Texas Senate seat, which would be the first statewide Democrat victory in the state since 2018.
Separately, a recent AARP survey found Democratic challenger Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, with 46 percent of the vote to 41 percent. This poll of 800 likely voters was conducted over September 8 to September 11 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Foreign Policy ‘Can Lose’ Elections
Mark Shanahan, an expert in American politics who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek that Trump’s war with Iran has seriously hurt Republican chances at the midterms.
Shanahan said: “Foreign policy doesn’t normally win U.S. elections, but it can lose them. The GOP has to contend with President Trump’s war of choice in Iran, and his denial that it’s going badly. What matters to Americans is the state of the economy, and Trump’s ill-chosen war has led to significant price rises from the gas station to the weekly shop. The president is in denial, which doesn’t play well with candidates battling on local issues, often around affordability.
“The only small saving grace for Republicans is the disorganized state of the Democrat opposition, which has yet to offer a cohesive alternative. Trump’s not on the ballot, but will still dominate this election.”
Speaking to Newsweek, Dafydd Townley, an expert in American political history at the University of Portsmouth in the U.K., added: “Trump owns the primaries, but he can’t out-primary the cost of living, foreign policy failures, and a Supreme Court that keeps saying no to his election power grabs. Voters are ready to hand Democrats both chambers, which could lead to a legislative stalemate and potential government shutdowns in the next Congress.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and James Debens
