2026 House Midterm Elections: Why Republicans Are Spending in 39 Previously Safe Districts

Republicans are redirecting campaign funds into more than three dozen U.S. House districts previously considered safe after internal polling showed potential vulnerabilities in seats that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024.

With the Nov. 3 midterm elections just over five weeks away, the shift is appearing in advertising reservations and campaign finance filings.

House Republican leaders have warned dozens of campaigns that they cannot assume victory, even in districts where Republican candidates lead in public polling, and Trump won comfortably in 2024, according to two Republican operatives familiar with the party’s thinking. The warnings come as Republicans defend a narrow House majority.

A Narrow House Majority Under Pressure

Republicans currently hold 218 House seats, compared with 214 for Democrats, while one independent caucus with Republicans and two seats are vacant. Democrats would need a net gain of at least four seats to control the chamber after the November election.

Since Sept. 1, major Republican groups and megadonors have begun spending in at least 39 congressional races where they had not previously deployed money this election cycle, according to a Reuters review of spending by some of the largest Republican political organizations.

Two Republican operatives working with party leaders said the strategy involves using the party’s spending advantage to counter Democratic attacks before they gain traction. They described the new spending as “insurance policies” for Republican-held districts.

“Republicans are deploying our massive war chest to drive voters to the polls and supercharge our candidates,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee (RNC). “We’re not taking anything for granted, because, unlike Democrats, Republicans aren’t throwing in the towel on races we can win.”

Republican Rep. Bryan Steil’s Wisconsin district voted for Trump by about 4.5 percentage points in 2024 and is rated “lean Republican” by Cook Political Report. Conservative super PACs invested $1.5 million in the race this month, their first investment in the contest this cycle.

In North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, east of Raleigh, Rep. Gregory Murphy received $131,107 from a conservative political action committee in September, the first outside spending on his behalf in the midterm campaign.

Trump carried the district by 14 percentage points in 2024, while Democrats had spent more than $326,000 trying to defeat Murphy since July. Cook Political Report rates the district “solid Republican.” Murphy’s office did not return a request for comment.

In a South Texas district Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, Republican groups have spent about $2 million on text messages, direct mail and digital advertising since Sept. 5 to support incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Cook Political Report moved the district from “lean Republican” to “tossup” on Sept. 26.

Economic Pressures Add to Campaign Concerns

The new spending comes as Republicans campaign in areas facing higher costs for fuel, energy and agricultural inputs. The rising gas prices, energy costs and fertilizer expenses are creating challenges for candidates in traditionally Republican agricultural regions.

One Republican House campaign aide described the environment for candidates in Iowa, Kansas and other Midwestern states as “dire” as diesel prices rise, according to Reuters.

“We’re in this crucial period in the last 30 days where candidates have to really make a case, given how tough the headwinds are,” said Kevin Madden, former adviser to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and now senior partner at corporate advisory firm Penta Group.

Campaigns are running as if trailing in the polls “even in red districts or traditionally safe” ones, Madden said.

Republicans Maintain a Spending Advantage

More than $1.56 billion has been spent by independent committees on federal elections so far, with roughly $496 million deployed since Labor Day.

Republicans have reserved at least $888 million in advertising for the coming weeks, compared with at least $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.

No Going Back PAC, which is fully funded by Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc., is leading the Republican spending surge, according to Federal Election Commission records. Over the three weeks through Friday, Republican-leaning super PACs spent about $309.7 million, compared with $174.2 million spent by Democratic-leaning groups, according to FEC data cited by Reuters.

“Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have,” said Mike Marinella, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Democrats have acknowledged the funding gap but argued that Republican spending in districts Trump won in 2024 reflects concerns about the party’s position ahead of the midterms.

“Republicans are running scared, know they’ve lost the American people, and are trying one last Hail Mary to spend their way out of certain defeat,” said Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

The shift shows where Republican groups are choosing to deploy resources in the weeks before Election Day, while public polling, campaign spending and voter preferences can continue to change before the election.