Just how close is this Texas Senate race?

Republican strategist Karl Rove questioned on Friday whether Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has “the guts” to debate Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, warning that avoiding a head-to-head matchup could cost the Republican the election.

During a discussion with Democratic strategist David Axelrod at the Economic Club of Chicago, Rove argued that a debate is essential for Paxton as he seeks to win one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races.

“If he doesn’t debate, I think he loses,” Rove said. “If he debates, the question is, ‘Is he going to be able to go on the offense?’”

When Axelrod suggested Paxton has avoided debates because he is not a skilled debater, Rove dismissed that explanation. “You don’t need to be adroit in this,” Rove said. “The question is, does he have the guts to do it?”

Newsweek reached out for comment by email to Talarico and Paxton’s campaign offices.

Rove’s comments come as Talarico continues publicly challenging Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News. A Fox spokesperson has indicated the network would be willing to host if both candidates agree to participate.

Paxton adviser Nick Maddux previously said the attorney general would “of course” debate Talarico, but no debate has been scheduled.

Reports indicate Paxton’s campaign has declined multiple debate opportunities, including a proposed CNN debate.

Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico: What Latest Polls Show

A polling average compiled by PollsMax on Thursday showed Talarico leading Paxton by just 0.2 percentage points, while other recent surveys have results from a narrow Democratic lead to a slim Republican advantage.

A Fox News poll released Thursday showed Talarico with a net positive personal rating of 8 points, while Paxton was underwater. The poll showed that Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats do Talarico.

The issue has become increasingly significant as polling suggests the race remains highly competitive.

A recent poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, conducted from September 15 to September 19 among 1,800 likely Texas voters, found Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent supporting another candidate and 4 percent undecided.

Rove’s Growing Criticism of Paxton

Rove’s comments are the latest in a series of unusually sharp public criticisms of Paxton from the longtime Republican strategist and former adviser to President George W. Bush.

Speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival last week, Rove argued that Republicans would be in a much stronger position if former Senator John Cornyn had won the GOP nomination instead of Paxton.

“If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over,” Rove said, arguing that Paxton’s political baggage has complicated what otherwise might have been a typical Republican vs. Democrat contest in Texas.

Rove also said at the festival that private conversations with Republicans convinced him the race was more competitive than many in the party expected. He claimed Republican figures, including allies of Paxton and Senator Ted Cruz, had acknowledged concerns about the GOP’s position.

His latest comments come amid a difficult week for Paxton, who has faced renewed scrutiny following the emergence of leaked audio and continued focus on his decision not to commit to a debate with Talarico.

President Donald Trump called Paxton “a pain in the ass” during a rally Thursday night.

Trump seemed to reference Paxton’s support after the 2020 election when he filed a failed Supreme Court lawsuit seeking to overturn election results in several battleground states won by former President Joe Biden.

“Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes. I’ll be honest,” Trump said, drawing laughter from the crowd. Moments later, the president pivoted from the joke to a glowing endorsement, calling Paxton “the greatest attorney general in the United States of America.”

When Is Midterm Voting in Texas?

Early voting in Texas begins on October 19 and runs through October 30, with Election Day set for November 3. The final weeks of the campaign may become a test of whether negative advertising can alter the trajectory of an exceptionally close race.

A debate could provide one of the most closely watched moments of the Texas Senate campaign.

Talarico has sought to frame the contest around affordability, healthcare and ethics issues, while Paxton has emphasized immigration enforcement, border security and alignment with Trump’s agenda. Internal discussions among Texas political observers have identified border security, the cost of living and questions surrounding Paxton’s ethics controversies as among the race’s key battlegrounds.

Where Ken Paxton, James Talarico Stand on AI

Artificial intelligence has emerged as an unexpected issue in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with both candidates focusing heavily on the rapid growth of AI data centers across the Lone Star State.

Paxton has argued that the U.S. must remain competitive with China in the race to develop artificial intelligence, while supporting new restrictions on data centers’ energy and water use. The Republican has proposed banning Chinese technology from U.S. data center infrastructure, holding companies liable if AI tools harm children and requiring data centers to cover their own power and infrastructure costs.

“It can’t be a no, because we won’t survive that. China will have a huge advantage over us in artificial intelligence and they will use that to dominate us,” Paxton said in discussing AI development.

Talarico has framed AI primarily as a consumer-protection and affordability issue. His campaign says AI companies should pay for their own electricity and water infrastructure rather than shifting costs to Texans, while local communities should have greater authority over whether major data centers are built in their areas.

Talarico has also proposed an “AI dividend” concept aimed at ensuring Americans share in the economic gains generated by artificial intelligence companies.

Despite their differences, both candidates have expressed support for continued AI innovation while backing greater oversight of the rapidly expanding data center industry.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins