Nasdaq 100’s uptrend intact after rebound above key support
AS AT early October 2026, the Nasdaq 100 strengthened following a strong rebound from its mid-September lows, keeping its broader uptrend intact. The index remains aligned with an ascending trendline drawn from the March 2026 lows through the July 2026 and September 2026 lows. Although Nasdaq 100 futures briefly broke above their all-time highs on Oct 1, 2026, the index stayed just below record levels during actual trading hours, indicating near-term selling pressure persists near the all-time high threshold.
The recent advance follows a period of consolidation between the 0.236 Fibonacci extension level at 29,050 and 0.382 Fibonacci extension level at 30,200, measured from the March low to the June high and July low. The index finally broke above this range after mid-September, signalling a recovery in momentum across the technology space. However, investors continue to balance corporate earnings expectations, monetary policy, and sector rotation as market dynamics near record peaks.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 is currently testing an important resistance cluster between 30,900 and 31,050. This area brings together the near-term resistance of the record high and the 0.50 Fibonacci extension level to form a strong overhead hurdle.
Should the index deliver a decisive breakout above the 31,050 level, it would signal a likely robust continuation of the primary bull market and open the path towards the next upside technical target around 31,800 to 32,000, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level.
On the downside, technical support layers remain well-defined to absorb potential pullbacks. The first layer of support is established between 30,050 and 30,150. This zone marks a former resistance area that could now act as support with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing additional technical support. If selling pressure accelerates below this initial threshold, the secondary support zone between 29,600 and 29,750 should offer a strong medium-term buffer, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs converge.
Overall, the Nasdaq 100 futures’ primary trend remains constructive as long as price action stays above its converging moving averages and ascending trendlines. A sustained breakout above 30,900-31,050 would provide further confirmation of upward momentum and bring the 31,800-32,000 region into focus. Conversely, a pullback towards 30,050-30,150 that holds could indicate consolidation within the prevailing uptrend.
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The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities
