Oil gains on report Trump may order Iran strikes before midterms
Brent rises above US$101 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate trades near US$89
Published Thu, Oct 8, 2026 · 06:09 AM — Updated Thu, Oct 8, 2026 · 09:24 AM
[TOKYO] Oil gained after a report that the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections, and as a storm shut some US output.
Brent rose above US$101 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near US$89.
The report in The Atlantic cited two administration officials, and runs counter to a widespread assumption that US President Donald Trump would hold off on escalating the conflict with Teheran before the polls in November.
The size and targets of the potential strikes, and whether the administration will proceed, are still being debated, The Atlantic said. A limited operation could be followed up by more substantial action after the midterms, it added.
Meanwhile, producers in the Gulf of Mexico shut in more than 510,000 barrels a day of crude output – about a quarter of supply in the region – in response to tropical storm Isaias, the Marine Minerals Administration said. Isaias is expected to grow into a strong Category 2 hurricane in the coming days.
Crude has rallied sharply in 2026 as the US-Iran conflict roiled exports, draining energy inventories and fuelling a pickup in global inflation.
While the pace of exports from the Middle East has increased in recent weeks, there has also been a surge in attacks on vessels. Recent incidents included a strike against a tanker in the waters off Qatar, with casualties reported.
US Central Command – which oversees Washington’s military operations in the region – said 20 million barrels of crude oil were flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a social media post, without giving a timeframe.
That equals the daily volume before the conflict, although it is above estimates given by some industry leaders at a conference this week.
“Flows from the Middle East have recovered, but constrained product supplies, extreme logistics costs and a high risk of Iranian escalation are keeping prices elevated,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee.
Elsewhere in the region, Iran-backed Houthis struck two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing three people as the group intensifies its attacks on the kingdom, while also fighting Riyadh-backed forces in Yemen.
In retaliation, the Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed 82 targets in Saada, Hodeida, Jawf and Marib.
The region-wide risks, strikes against vessels, and demand for crude from more-distant loading points, are driving a historic freight rally, adding huge costs to the supply chain.
Hiring a very large crude carrier to move US oil to Asia now costs US$77 million, up from an average of US$9.2 million in 2025.
In the US, official data showed total crude and products exports hit the highest since May last week, returning to a seasonal record and highlighting strong overseas demand. BLOOMBERG
