SpaceX IPO Faces October 26 Test as 319 Million Insider Shares Become Eligible for Sale
SpaceX faces a key test on Oct. 26, when approximately 319 million insider shares become eligible for sale, potentially increasing the supply of shares available to investors. The release is part of the company’s phased post-IPO lockup schedule, with the shares becoming eligible on Saturday, Oct. 24, and the first opportunity to trade them falling on Monday.
The release could increase the supply of SpaceX shares available for trading, although eligibility doesn’t mean holders will sell immediately. The market impact will depend on actual selling activity and investor demand.
SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, and began trading the following day. The company reportedly raised $75 billion by selling 555.6 million new Class A shares at the offering price.
SpaceX Uses a Phased Insider Lockup Schedule
Rather than releasing all restricted shares at once, SpaceX established a schedule that staggers when certain shareholders can sell their holdings. According to reports citing the company’s prospectus, some shares subject to a 180-day lockup can become eligible for sale in tranches following earnings releases and on specified dates.
The next major release is expected after SpaceX reports its third-quarter 2026 results. Reports indicate that up to 1.3 billion shares could become eligible for sale on the second full trading day after the results. A further tranche of approximately 797.6 million shares is scheduled for Dec. 8, when the 180-day lockup expires.
Elon Musk, who reportedly controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power, signed a separate 366-calendar-day lockup agreement. His shares are excluded from the 180-day release schedule.
Previous Share Releases Offer Market Context
SpaceX’s Aug. 6 lockup release offers a reference point for the upcoming milestone. More than 900 million shares reportedly became eligible for trading that day, while the stock rose 6.1% to close at $114.92. The increase followed a decline of nearly 14% in the previous session.
An SEC filing dated Sept. 22 reportedly showed that SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell proposed selling 342,170 shares valued at approximately $52 million, according to Stocktwits. The filing should be checked directly to confirm the proposed transaction’s terms and whether it was completed.
Retail Investors Face Potential Supply Risks
The Motley Fool argued that SpaceX’s accelerated unlock schedule could expose retail investors to selling pressure from insiders who acquired shares before the IPO at lower prices. Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum set a $75 price target for SpaceX shares.
Thum cited capital expenditures amounting to approximately 2.4 times revenue in the second quarter of 2026 and warned investors to expect selling pressure around lockup expirations. Thum’s $75 target reflects his assessment of SpaceX’s valuation and is not a guaranteed future price.
Analysts Differ on SpaceX’s Price Outlook
Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey argued ahead of the Aug. 6 release that not all shares eligible for sale would necessarily enter the market. Mizuho maintained an “Outperform” rating and a $200 price target.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was more bullish. Jonas said the expiration of lockup provisions that bar employees and others from selling was an opportunity for others to get into the stock cheaply, and projected the stock could rise to $300 by the middle of next year.
The contrasting assessments reflect different views of SpaceX’s valuation and prospects. Neither analyst’s target establishes how the stock will respond to the release. It’s one of several scheduled increases in SpaceX’s tradable share supply before the final tranche in December.
