What Trump’s Waiver of New Russia Sanctions Means for Ukraine

In his announcement of the deal on Truth Social, Trump said that Russia had agreed to supply global markets with more than 4.8 million tons of diesel, claiming  that it would bring diesel prices down “IN RECORD NUMBERS.”

But experts question whether the deal would actually have any material impact on the price of fuel for American consumers.

“There could be a modest short-term effect on wholesale prices, but only a small and delayed benefit, if any, would reach consumers at the pump,” says Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

The waiver signed Friday, in comparison, could potentially prevent additional disruption to the global energy market. It allows Russian oil to continue flowing to importers like China and India, preventing further market volatility.

“The broader sanctions waiver may prevent additional market disruptions, but it does not itself create new supply,” Mitrova says. “The potential economic benefit to American consumers looks rather modest compared with the geopolitical cost of weakening sanctions pressure.”