What Next For The Republican Party? Conservatives Could Face A Choice Between ‘America First’ And ‘MAGA’ In 2028.

Following devastating midterm election results which saw Democrats gain control of Congress and win Senate races for the first time in decades in Republican stronghold states like Texas and Kansas, ideological and strategic divisions about what the future of the GOP should look like are coming to the fore.

President Donald Trump has said that the defeat of Republican candidates’ in the midterms was a result of him not being on the ballot, but the president himself held rallies for and repeatedly endorsed many of the defeated candidates, and effectively handpicked two Republicans – Ken Paxton and Darline Graham – who lost two key Senate races in Texas and North Carolina respectively.

Trump had also repeatedly urged American voters to act as if he himself were on the ballot on Tuesday.

Some Republicans are therefore questioning the credibility of Trump’s claimed popularity, and are pushing for the party to adopt a different strategy, ideology and ultimately leader in the future.

The key group questioning the Trump line is the so-called “America First” faction. Although Trump himself has often characterized his movement as “America First”, some figures within the conservative movement have said that Trump’s close alliance with Israel and his foreign military adventurism demonstrate that he has deviated from the focus on domestic issues which they see as foundational to “America First” conservatism.

Former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is one such figure. Greene, who was once a Trump loyalist, very publicly broke with the president over her support for the release of the Epstein files, her criticism of U.S. military adventures abroad in Venezuela and Iran as well as what she perceived as Trump’s disregard for domestic pressures, such as the rising cost of living.

Greene resigned from Congress in late 2025, and has repeatedly described herself as an “America First” conservative, distinguishing herself from those who identify as “MAGA” conservatives, a term which alludes to the “Make America Great Again” slogan which Trump coined and has become a synonym for a Trump loyalist.

“If the GOP wants any chance in the future, it will have to kick Donald Trump out of the party. He has absolutely destroyed it and the current state of the GOP is warmongering, corrupt, corporate focused, entity that does not at all reflect the conservative values of its voters,” former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X on Wednesday.

Others from within the conservative movement have made similar calls for a shift towards an “America First” ideology after the midterm losses.

“The MAGA political brand is dead but America First as a movement and principle lives on and must live on. If the Republican Party will have any future, and if the country itself will have any future, it will be through America First,” Matt Walsh, a prominent conservative commentator with the broadly pro-Trump media outlet Daily Wire, said.

It is unclear how these divisions will play out on the presidential stage in 2028, but some speculate that an “America First” candidate who shares much of Trump’s policy platform on social issues but advocates for a far more isolationist foreign policy could emerge as a frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

Although senior figures in the administration have broadly presented a united front and attempted to stifle talk of 2028 presidential challenges, some have identified Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance as potential challengers for the Republican nomination.

Of the two figures, Vance is more broadly associated with the Republican Party’s isolationist wing; the Vice President has refused to disavow figures associated with the “America First” movement such as former FOX News host and journalist Tucker Carlson.

Like Greene, Carlson, who once hosted the highest rated cable news show on FOX, fell out very publicly with Trump over the president’s foreign policy, specifically his continued prosecution of the Iran War.

He too has accused Trump of betraying “America First” principles, called for a move away from Trumpism, and has even suggested that he would help create a third party. He has also continued to praise Vance since breaking with Trump.

Vance has, like many at the forefront of the “America First” movement, historically positioned himself as an opponent of hawkish foreign policy interventionism. In the weeks leading up to the Iran war, Vance is said to have articulated his opposition to starting a military operation against Tehran on numerous occasions.

In his first tweet since the midterm election results broke, Vance seemed to return to this position.

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night … to the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview,” the Vice President said.

Rubio has also said he supports a peaceful resolution to the hostilities in the Middle East, but he is generally perceived as being more aligned with a more neoconservative strand of American Republicanism which is associated with recent American adventurism in Venezuela, Cuba, Iran and elsewhere.

Some experts have identified a link between Trump’s growing affinity with this neoconservative, hawkish approach to foreign policy and Rubio’s rise to the top diplomatic office in government, noting that the foreign policy actions of the Trump administration deviate significantly from the president’s initial promise not to involve the U.S. in any more so-called “forever” wars.

Given this context, Rubio could well be the candidate seen as the more natural successor to Trump as the standard-bearer to the (allegedly) newly neoconservative MAGA movement.

However, such a split between the two figures is by no means guaranteed. Trump has previously teased the idea of the two running on a joint ticket in 2028, and although Vance dismissed the suggestion, he also downplayed speculation of an ideological rift between the two.

“I love Marco. I think he’s a great secretary of state. He’s become a very, very dear friend,” Vance said in May.