The Texas Midterms Showed that Latino Voters Are Still Looking For a Political Home

According to Equis Research, from 2016 to 2024, Latinos shifted more in favor of Trump than any other U.S. racial group: a 16-point gain. It is important not to over-interpret those changes. It seems clear that there were aspects of Trump’s message that resonated in important ways with Latino voters. But there is much political discontent in the community. In the 2025 Pew survey, 68% of respondents said that Latinos’ situation in the U.S. was worse than a year ago. This was the first time in over two decades of Pew surveys that a majority of Latinos said their situation had worsened. Among those who voted to give Trump a chance in 2024, polling suggests that many have lost faith in President Trump’s promises, particularly around economic issues. 

The election results from Texas’ Rio Grande Valley suggest another shift may have happened, back to the Democrats. Over 90% of the valley is Latino, and Democrats swept all Congressional districts, including those that had been drawn to favor Republicans. Again, overinterpretation is a danger, particularly the assumption that electoral shifts of this type will be durable. That remains to be seen. Latino poll respondents have long indicated that they do not trust either party; the fastest-growing party identification among Latinos is no party preference. Few candidates or party operatives, in either political party, invest the time needed to authentically engage targeted Latino voters around what matters to them. As a result, either outreach does not happen or, in the rare cases that it does, it is symbolic rather than substantive. Latino voters can tell the difference.