What An Early Polar Vortex Combined With El Niño Means For Winter Weather

The polar vortex is expected to bring chilly temperatures to the U.S. by Thanksgiving week. However, what happens beyond that is still uncertain. 

A weak polar vortex in November by no means dictates the rest of the winter. “This is not going to determine how our winter is going to be,” says Cohen. “It could make it colder right at the start of winter, but I don’t think its influence will last much longer than that.”

Experts say that it’s too early to say how the so-called “super El Niño” might interact with the polar vortex. “Because these events are so rare, we have perhaps 45 or so of these events that we’ve ever observed,” says Charlton-Perez. 

El Niño years typically bring milder temperatures, but much depends on how it interacts with the polar vortex over the rest of the winter. 

There’s a chance El Niño and the polar vortex work together, which would mean this winter would have mild weather in store. “If the pole vortex is in a strong circular state [for the rest of winter], then it’s going to influence our weather to be mild, and the El Niño influences our weather to be mild, so they’re reinforcing each other,” says Cohen.