‘Superman’, The First Movie In James Gunn & Peter Safran’s Revamped DC Universe, To Fly Around The World To At Least $200M+ – Box Office Preview
Superman, the first movie in Peter Safran and James Gunn‘s revamped DC Studios Phase I, labeled “Gods and Monsters,” is opening this weekend. Talk about pressure. There is a lot riding on this movie as it tees up the tone and grand plans that the duo have assembled since Warner Bros Discovery siloed DC away from the main aorta Warner Bros Motion Picture Group a la the setup of Marvel at Disney.
Even more amazing and audacious here, Gunn bet on himself writing, directing and producing the movie that lights the wick to new era at DC following the dark-tone era of Zack Synder and Christopher Nolan.
After a rapturous premiere in Hollywood on Monday night and reviews this morning of 85% certified fresh, hopefully there’s no reason for anyone on the Burbank lot to sweat.
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Studios sources tell us that that Superman will see at least a $200M global start at 60,000 global screens, split evenly between domestic and overseas. Stateside, we’re hearing that presales are at $20M, which is ahead of Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M) and behind fellow 2023 release Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M). Stateside, rivals — some tracking firms and exhibitors’ internal estimates — believe Superman flies to $115M-$130M.
What could put this over the top? Reviews, which currently stand at 85% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes — roughly equal to the review rating of the original 1978 Richard Donner Superman starring Christopher Reeve. That will convince the adults to go see this next rendition. Those reviews are leaps and bounds higher than Snyder’s 2013 reboot Man of Steel (57% rotten), his 2016 faceoff Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice (23%) and Bryan Singer’s 2006 Superman Returns at 72%.
The Man of Steel will be flying around the world as the major-territory rollout commences on Wednesday in France, Italy and Korea. Thursday adds Germany, Australia, Brazil and Mexico, and Friday brings the UK, Spain, China and Japan on board. We expect the best performing markets to be a mix of the UK, Brazil (which leans heavy into DC), Mexico, Australia, France and Germany. In total 78 territories. Currently, Superman leads presales in China for Thursday previews and on opening Friday, but not on Saturday and Sunday. The team has notably traveled to events in Rio and London. In the latter, there was an 11ft sculpture of Superman suspended at the top of The Shard.
Tonight, there’s the first of the sold-out Amazon Prime member paid screenings of Superman which start at 7PM. Previews continue Thursday at 2PM in 3,400 locations, rising to 4,000 by Friday for a U.S./Canada 10K screen footprint.
First choice for Superman stateside is strongest with all dudes over and under 25. Overall First choice is a point higher than Disney’s Lilo & Stitch ($146M opening), above Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie ($162.7M) and -64% lower in first choice than Matt Reeves’ The Batman back in 2022 ($134M opening) two days before preview Thursday.
Superman absorbs all the premium formats of Dolby, PLF, Screen-X and motion seats for Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth, that movie looking at a -55% second hold or $60M. The Dinos will have some PLFs this coming weekend. That Gareth Edwards directed movie minted close to $12M yesterday for a running cume of $159.8M.
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The Superman franchise was always a prized one for Warner Bros, and the father of superhero movies. The first movie, unadjusted for inflation, at $134.4M domestic, $300.4M worldwide was part of the early era of blockbusters movies at time when Jaws and Star Wars were taking cinema to the next level. Superman II, which grew out of the original Superman, was also a big summer hit for Warners back in 1981 with lines around the block on opening weekend and a very notable $14.1M at the time and an end gross of $108.1M, $216.3M worldwide. But then Superman lost flight and Warners fumbled the lucrative Christopher Reeves franchise greatly. Superman III in a bad pairing co-starred comedy blockbuster star Richard Pryor and was panned by critics at 31% and deep-dived to $59.9M in 1983 (despite a very good $13.3M opening), and $80.2M worldwide. By 1987, when blockbusters were truly in full swing, audiences turned their back on Superman IV: Quest for Peace which nosedived to $15.6M stateside off a $5.6M debut, and just north of $30M worldwide — a disaster. Singer’s Superman Returns would pay homage and act as sequel to the original Donner movie with an eerily similar looking actor to Reeves in Brandon Routh. The movie back in 2006 didn’t exactly take off with a $52.5M 3-day and five-day pre July 4th of $84.5M, its enormous $223M production, the movie’s biggest piece of kryptonite resulting in a $200M domestic take, $391M worldwide.
‘Batman v. Superman’
Snyder’s Man of Steel in 2013 finally took off with then fresh face Henry Cavill opening to $116.6M domestic, and ending its run at $291M U.S./Canada, $670.1M worldwide. That movie would spawn Cavill’s Superman as a lead in 2016’s Batman v. Superman from Snyder and the director’s Justice League. Batman v. Superman owns the record opening for a Superman movie with $166M domestic, and overall take at $330.3M U.S./Canada and $874.3M worldwide. Justice League in 2017 began to show that the Synderverse was fraying with a $93.8M opening, $229M domestic, $661.3M global take off a $300M production cost.
