NATO’s Eastern Flank Makes Plans for Wartime Footing
Polish lawmakers are drawing up legislation to prepare for a “pre-war period,” according to domestic media reports, amid concerns among NATO officials Russia could launch some form of attack on an alliance member as soon as this year.
Poland’s defense ministry has put together a draft law to beef up Poland’s “defense capabilities” and improve links between the country’s military and internal security services, Poland’s Rzeczpospolita newspaper reported.
“This is preparing the state for the pre-war period,” an unnamed source described as close to the president told the outlet.
Newsweek has reached out to the Polish defense ministry for comment via email.
Poland announced sweeping changes to its military in 2022, swelling the size of its army, buying new, often American-made weapons and making the military recruitment process easier.
Warsaw plans to increase the ranks of its army to 300,000 active-duty soldiers by 2039, according to Polish online news portal and internet radio station RMF24. This would represent more than three-fold increase from 2015. Another 200,000 will be reservists, the outlet added.
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than four and a half years ago. It’s also NATO’s top military spender, when taken as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), expected to dedicate more than 4.81 percent of its GDP to defense this year.
Meanwhile, NATO officials have warned in recent months Russia could escalate its so-called “hybrid warfare” assaults against alliance members, or even attempt a small-scale land-grab against a NATO country as early as this fall.
“Hybrid warfare” is a broad term, largely referring to activities that stop short of open fighting, such as cyberattacks, information campaigns or targeting vulnerable infrastructure like power grids or undersea cables.
European capitals have sounded the alarm over a string of incidents described as hybrid warfare attacks, with Russia directly named as the alleged perpetrator or suspected of being involved.
Russia’s embassy in London told Newsweek on Thursday it “categorically rejects” these accusations and said “technical failures, infrastructure faults and criminal incidents across Europe are routinely attributed to our country, without evidence and often before any investigation has been concluded.”
The Polish government said in September that a fire at a Starlink satellite site linked to the Ukrainian military was an “act of sabotage,” while Polish prosecutors said they suspected a Russian connection.
Separately, a Russian drone struck the engine of a passenger train traveling from Kyiv to Warsaw last month, close to the Polish border.
A Russian military helicopter violated Polish airspace after crossing over from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the Polish military also said in mid-September.
European NATO nations, particularly those pressed up on Russia’s border or Ukrainian soil, have been further set on edge by a series of drone and missile incursions into their airspace, which some officials describe as Moscow probing NATO reactions, trying to weaken the alliance and hack at support for Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, said intelligence assessments indicate a “real risk” of more drones and missiles breaking into NATO airspace in the near future.
Russia will claim this type of incident is “accidental,” Tusk added.
Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, said on Saturday that Warsaw would increase its helicopter and fighter jet flights because “provocations from Russia are taking various forms and pose a threat in places that have so far been considered safe.”
Denmark’s military and foreign intelligence service said in a stark statement in late September that Moscow had upped its cyberattacks and sabotage operations in Europe, and described Russia as “more willing to take risks.”
Danish intelligence assessed Russia would try to further turn up the pressure of its hybrid war against NATO “with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.”
Kaliningrad and Nuclear Threats
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed on Thursday to use all of Russia’s arsenal—including its vast nuclear weapons stockpile— to defend Kaliningrad, should the isolated territory come under attack.
NATO says it denounces “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and the alliance in no way poses a risk to Russia, including when conducting military exercises in the Baltic Sea.
Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and a contentious strip of land, the Suwałki Gap, links the isolated Russian oblast to Belarus.
The Baltic Sea territory is home to a major Russian naval fleet and launchers able to fire fast-traveling missiles, but is surrounded by NATO member states.
Last month, British broadcaster Sky News aired a miniseries tracing a hypothetical Russian attack on the United Kingdom and how the country might respond—including by authorizing operations against the Baltic territory of Kaliningrad. It generated significant British media attention.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) report, released last month, found there was a “low but growing risk” Russia could carry out a “limited military attack against one or several NATO countries” on the alliance’s eastern edge.
Some form of small-scale land grab or military operation against NATO territory is generally seen as the realistic worst-case scenario for NATO, rather than an all-out, Ukraine-style invasion push.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Cristina Diciu.
