Middle East Oil Exports Hit Pre-War Levels: Why Tanker Attacks Aren’t Cutting Supply Yet
Middle East crude oil exports rose above their pre-war average on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd), according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. The increase came despite continued attacks on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
The region’s crude exports averaged about 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026, before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28.
Kpler data showed the seven-day moving average reached 18.5 million bpd on Oct. 1, while the latest Reuters assessment using Kpler and Vortexa data put September’s average at 18.3 million bpd, with a peak of 18.6 million bpd.
The figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Kpler’s overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to Sept. 30. The data excludes vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.
How Producers Are Working Around the Threat
The recovery in exports means producers and shipping companies have adapted by using alternative export routes, smaller vessels and ship-to-ship transfers.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which carries crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and allows shipments to bypass Hormuz, was damaged in a Sept. 10 Houthi attack. Shipments from Yanbu later recovered. The United Arab Emirates has also used its pipeline network to move crude to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
Smaller shuttle vessels have also been used to move crude through Hormuz along an Omani coastal corridor before transferring cargo to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Indian refiners have begun commissioning tankers for the route, according to the report.
“More oil is coming out of the Middle East Gulf than many expected would be possible even just a few months ago,” Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, told an online briefing on Oct. 1.
Before the conflict, it handled about 125 large commercial vessel transits a day and accounted for roughly 20% of global crude oil and LNG supplies.
Tanker Attacks Have Continued
The increase in oil flows hasn’t been accompanied by a comparable reduction in maritime security risks.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported attacks involving vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters on multiple occasions in recent days. Its incident log includes reports on Sept. 30, Oct. 1, Oct. 2 and Oct. 4.
In its Oct. 4 warning, UKMTO said a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile, causing damage to the engine room. The crew was reported safe, and no environmental impact was reported.
At least seven incidents were recorded in the week to Oct. 4, including attacks involving the very large crude carrier Kazimah III and the Aframax tanker Lipsi.
On Oct. 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III, operated by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait, causing an onboard fire. Kpler data showed the vessel had discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz port on Sept. 17.
Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, said merchant vessels face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.” Available intelligence indicated Iranian forces may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement zone, or “kill box,” with weapons locking onto available radar signatures rather than individually selected vessels.
“Higher exports do not necessarily mean that the Strait of Hormuz has become safe. They simply show that the oil industry has become accustomed to working around that danger,” Meade said.
The latest attacks therefore highlight the distinction between oil availability and the security of the routes used to transport it. Producers have been able to restore flows by using alternative routes and more complex shipping arrangements, but those arrangements remain exposed to further attacks and higher transportation costs.
Refinery Bottleneck Keeps Diesel Prices High
The recovery in crude exports hasn’t translated into a full recovery in refined-product supplies.
The International Energy Agency said Gulf producers exported 3.3 million bpd of refined oil products in 2025, while nearly 3 million bpd of refining capacity in the region has been shut because of attacks and a lack of viable export outlets.
The IEA added that the disruption has contributed to tighter diesel markets, with refiners outside the region also reducing runs because of concerns about feedstock availability.
The pressure on refined products has been compounded by disruptions to Russian refining. The IEA said Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have significantly reduced Russian refinery runs and product exports.
“Refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity,” the IEA said. “This leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months.”
It means the Middle East’s recovery in crude exports hasn’t eliminated broader energy-market risks. Oil can continue moving through alternative routes even while attacks persist, but refining losses, higher freight costs and maritime security risks remain constraints on the wider supply chain.
