Alexander Kolodin’s chances of winning in Arizona after Trump endorsement
President Donald Trump has weighed into November’s race for Arizona’s secretary of state by giving his “complete and total endorsement” to Republican Alexander Kolodin, whose chances of winning got an immediate boost.
Trump posted on Truth Social his praise for Kolodin, who this week won the Republican nomination over former state GOP chair Gina Swoboda. He will face incumbent Arizona Secretary of State, the Democrat Adrian Fontes, in November’s general election.
Kolodin is a member of the Legislature’s right-wing Freedom Caucus and has questioned previous election results as well as echoed Trump’s false claims of election fraud.
Trump’s endorsement of Kolodin elevates a race that could determine who oversees voting and certification processes in a key swing state that will be a battleground again in 2028.
Trump’s Truth Social post will also be a test of whether his backing can help Republicans beyond his own base as he faces a slump in the polls.
“Congratulations to Alexander Kolodin for his great win in Arizona’s race for Secretary of State,” Trump posted on Saturday.
“He is tough, smart, and a proven winner. He was with me in my big Presidential Win. We’ll do a fantastic Trump Rally to make sure he WINS,” he added.
Newsweek has contacted Kolodin and Fontes for comment outside of normal office hours.
Kolodin’s Chances Of Winning
As of Sunday, Trump’s endorsement was only a few hours old, but the Kalshi prediction market put his chances of winning at 18.1 percent at 6 a.m. ET, an increase of six percentage points from Saturday. Fontes was well ahead at 81 percent.
Kolodin had a 19 percent chance of winning on July 22, according to Kalshi, which recorded his highest chance of winning on December 28, 2025, at 31 percent.
Prediction markets represent investor sentiment and are distinct from scientific public opinion polling.
After his victory, Kolodin posted on X on July 22: “Arizona voters spoke up decisively tonight for lawful, transparent, honest, and fair elections.”
“Our campaign is about protecting every vote, regardless of Party. Together, we will win in November and restore lawfulness, stability, and common sense to the office of Arizona Secretary of State,” he added.
The winner will be chief election officer in a battleground state during the 2028 presidential campaign. Part of the role of secretary of state in Arizona is to oversee statewide election administration, including certifying voting equipment, certifying statewide election results, and serving as the filing officer for candidates and ballot measures that qualify for the ballot.
Kolodin, who is backed by the conservative nonprofit Turning Point USA and a number of Arizona GOP members of Congress, led several lawsuits to overturn the results of the 2020 and 2022 elections in Arizona in moves criticized by judges and the state bar association.
He was sanctioned by the Arizona State Bar in 2023 over his role in post-election litigation challenging the 2020 election results.
Kolodin represented Trump’s campaign in Arizona’s so-called “Kraken” lawsuit, which alleged then-Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Governor Doug Ducey engaged in “massive election fraud” to manipulate the vote count in favor of former President Joe Biden.
The lawsuit sought to disqualify all the state’s mail-in ballots and Arizona’s electors from casting their votes for Biden.
However, U.S. District Court Judge Diane Humetewa dismissed the case and said it would “utterly disenfranchise” millions of Arizonans based on claims lacking “relevant or reliable evidence.”
