Atlantic hurricane season stirs as storm threat looms for millions in south
Residents across Florida and the Southeast face days of heavy rain and possible flooding as a tropical disturbance churns in the eastern Gulf, threatening dangerous conditions even if it does not develop into a named storm.
The National Hurricane Center said Saturday that showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough were moving slowly northward or north-northwestward. Forecasters gave the system a 20 percent chance of developing within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance over the next seven days.
Officials urged people along Florida’s west coast and panhandle to monitor the disturbance, which is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the state over the next several days. The National Weather Service said repeated rounds of storms could produce 1 to 3 inches across much of the region, with localized totals exceeding 5 inches—particularly in Florida’s Big Bend.
The system has not developed a surface circulation, and atmospheric pressure in the region remained relatively high Saturday morning, limiting its immediate prospects for organization. Nevertheless, forecasters said rainfall—not wind—was likely to be the primary threat, with street and low-lying-area flooding possible across west-central and southwest Florida.
AccuWeather projected a broader swath of 1 to 4 inches from central Florida into southern Georgia and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles, with isolated totals potentially reaching 8 inches. The heaviest rainfall could shift west along the central Gulf Coast depending on where a low-pressure center forms and how it moves.
A Quiet Start to a Forecast Below-Normal Season
The disturbance comes during a subdued start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed near the Texas coast in mid-June, has been the basin’s only named storm so far.
Arthur generated sustained winds of around 45 mph before weakening over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Forecasters warned that the storm and its remnants could produce 5 to 10 inches of rain—with isolated totals near 20 inches—from Texas into parts of the Southeast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
NOAA has predicted a 55 percent chance of a below-normal Atlantic season, compared with a 35 percent chance of near-normal activity and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. Its forecast calls for eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
The outlook is partly driven by an expected El Niño, which can increase wind shear over the Atlantic and make it harder for tropical systems to organize.
However, the season’s historically busiest period is still ahead, with Atlantic activity typically climbing sharply from August and peaking around Sept. 10.
