Black Sea Ship Attacks Raise Fears of Wider Russia-NATO Crisis

Bulgaria has formally asked NATO to deploy combat aircraft and anti-drone systems to strengthen its defences after a series of drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, as concerns grow over the threat to shipping near the alliance’s southeastern flank.

Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said on October 16 that Sofia had asked NATO to strengthen its capabilities and deploy additional forces on Bulgarian territory. The request was sent to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and the Supreme Allied Commander, and Bulgaria was awaiting a decision.

“We have sent letters and a request to the NATO Secretary General and the Supreme Allied Commander, urging them to strengthen our capabilities, which also means deploying additional forces on our territory. We are awaiting their decision,” Stoyanov said.

The request follows attacks on commercial ships near Romania and Bulgaria, including incidents in Romanian territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. Two tankers caught fire off Romania’s Black Sea coast this week, while a commercial vessel sank off Bulgaria following a drone attack on October 13, prompting Sofia to summon Russia’s ambassador.

The attacks have raised concerns about the safety of civilian crews and the risks posed by drone warfare linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Bulgaria has also proposed a moratorium on attacks against civilian vessels in the Black Sea and expects to join a NATO anti-drone initiative by the end of October.

Stoyanov said he planned to meet his Romanian and Turkish counterparts to discuss a coordinated response and a common approach to security in the Black Sea.

NATO ambassadors from the alliance’s 32 member states were expected to discuss Bulgaria’s request the following week. Rutte said the alliance would “continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defence posture as needed.”

Tanker Attacks Leave Sailors Missing, Russia’s Role Remains Unclear

The latest incidents have added to a series of attacks on commercial vessels operating near the coastlines and exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria. At least seven cargo vessels had been attacked in the Black Sea during October, with reports of deaths and missing sailors varying across incidents and reporting periods.

Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu said on October 15 that four commercial ships had been attacked in the preceding 24 hours, with eight people reported dead.

“Russia is turning the Black Sea into a dangerous area for civilian ships,” Țoiu said. “Killing sailors from commercial ships, both in this region and anywhere in the world, is a crime. Russia bears full responsibility for these developments.”

Romanian President Nicușor Dan said the latest incidents were serious and required a response, but cautioned against definitively attributing the attacks to Russia before the evidence had been assessed. A NATO military source told Reuters that the drones responsible for strikes on two tankers near Romania were of Russian origin.

Among the latest incidents, the San Marino-flagged chemical tanker Wine Trader was struck by a drone on October 15 and caught fire. Five crew members were rescued, while seven remained missing. The previous day, the Comoros-flagged tanker Yara J, travelling from Turkey to Romania, was hit in a separate incident. Its crew managed to extinguish the fire, and no missing crew members were reported from that vessel.

On October 13, two vessels were struck off Bulgaria’s coast. All 15 crew members aboard the Ukraine-operated, Malta-flagged Chelsea 3 were evacuated, while 11 crew members aboard the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity were reported missing. Earlier in the month, a Togo-flagged vessel sank in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, with 12 sailors reported aboard. A Bulgarian ferry also evacuated 18 crew members from a damaged Palau-flagged vessel.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has said Russia is the likely beneficiary of the attacks, while acknowledging that investigators have not established conclusive proof of responsibility.

“There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favors Russia – and indeed, the logic points in that direction. The problem is that we cannot prove it,” Radev said.

His comments reflect Sofia’s suspicions about Moscow but do not establish that Russia was responsible for every incident. Russia’s ambassador in Sofia said she did not have information from the Russian Defence Ministry about the attacks.

The incidents have also renewed questions about NATO’s collective-defence commitments. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty establishes the principle that an armed attack against one or more allies is considered an attack against them all. However, its application to an incident involving a commercial vessel in an exclusive economic zone is not automatic and would depend on the circumstances and the allies’ assessment.

Romanian defence analyst Radu Tudor highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the issue.

“It’s a matter of discussion whether the exclusive economic zone is included in the Article 5-type reaction or not,” he said. “And it seems that until now, it isn’t, which raised a lot of questions.”

Romania has proposed establishing a joint command for the Black Sea to improve coordination and regional security. Acting Defence Minister Radu Miruță said the attacks and other maritime threats required a coordinated response.

“The Black Sea incidents, involving drones, sunk ships, and naval mines, oblige us to act, not wait,” Miruță said.

Bulgaria and Romania are seeking closer cooperation with NATO and other regional partners to strengthen surveillance, improve responses to drone threats and protect commercial shipping routes.

Shipping Insurance Costs Rise as Black Sea Risks Grow

The attacks are also raising costs for commercial shipping through the Black Sea. Despite the incidents, trade through Romania’s Port of Constanta had not yet suffered significant disruption, according to grain consultant Cezar Gheorghe. However, insurance premiums for vessels operating in the wider region were rising.

“It’s a matter of time,” Gheorghe said, warning of the possibility of a serious incident affecting shipping near Constanta.

Higher insurance premiums could increase transport costs if the threat persists, particularly for vessels carrying grain and other commodities. The longer-term impact on trade remains uncertain, while the lack of significant disruption at Constanta suggests shipping activity had not yet been substantially affected.

Bulgaria’s request for NATO combat aircraft and anti-drone systems reflects growing concern among regional governments about protecting civilian shipping without triggering a wider confrontation. The alliance’s response remains to be seen as it has potential to shape the next phase of the Black Sea security crisis.

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