Breaking down Liberty-Dream playoff matchup, plus two WNBA semifinal predictions
ATLANTA — Survive and advance.
That’s the name of the game when it comes to the playoffs.
The Liberty carried out a stunning upset of the Minnesota Lynx, becoming the first eighth seed to beat a No. 1 seed.
The Atlanta Dream also handled business against the Washington Mystics, marking the Dream’s first time advancing past the first round since 2018.
Both teams are coming off first-round sweeps as they enter a best-of-five semifinal series that begins Sunday.
The Dream have home-court advantage, while the Liberty are far more experienced playing together in these high-stakes games.
A ticket to the WNBA Finals is on the line for the winner. Let’s take a look at how the two teams match up:
Angel Reese vs. Jonquel Jones
Reese has one of the best motors in the league and has become a rebounding machine, averaging 12.6 boards per game over her first three seasons.
She’s had a career renaissance since being traded to the Dream and was named Defensive Player of the Year.
But this is a matchup veteran Jones looks forward to — almost as if to humble the youngster. Reese’s lack of a 3-point threat allows Jones to sag off and be more disruptive inside.
The Liberty did a solid job keeping the Dream (and Reese in particular) off the offensive glass. They won the rebound battle in each of their three regular-season meetings, with Jones and Breanna Stewart averaging a combined 24.5 boards per outing.
Edge: Liberty
Dream backcourt vs. Liberty backcourt
The Dream have a more dynamic backcourt. Jordin Canada orchestrates the offense, averaging 7.3 assists per game. Meanwhile, Allisha Gray is one of the league’s most lethal downhill-attacking guards.
Pauline Astier is one of the best guards at finishing at the rim. Sabrina Ionescu has been up and down this season.
The biggest difference maker between these two areas is how elite the Dream defense is, particularly when it comes to jumping passing lanes and forcing live-ball turnovers. Atlanta likes to get out and run. If the Liberty don’t value possessions, it could be a tough series.
Edge: Dream
Depth/bench
The midseason pickup of DeWanna Bonner was huge for the Dream bench, and she’s Atlanta’s most reliable reserve.
How much can the Dream lean on rookies Madina Okot and Isobel Borlase, and second-year Te-Hina Paopao this time of year?
Meanwhile, the Liberty have more options. Han Xu is coming off a huge series. Rebekah Gardner, Rebecca Allen and Marine Johannes are seasoned pros. The reserves helped them run away with Game 1 against Minnesota.
The Liberty’s bench is in the top five in scoring, with 23.4 points per game, while Dream reserves averaged 17.9 points, the second fewest in the league.
Edge: Liberty
Coaching
This is Karl Smesko’s second season in Atlanta and Chris DeMarco’s first with the Liberty.
Smesko has been a head coach longer than DeMarco was on the Warriors bench. Prior to being hired by the Dream, Smesko was at Florida Gulf Coast for 17 seasons, during which he led the program to 10 NCAA Tournament berths in a 13-year span.
DeMarco outcoached Cheryl Reeve in the first round, which was impressive. But Smesko’s team has been one of the hottest teams in the league since August.
Edge: Atlanta
Prediction
UConn coach Geno Auriemma had a word to the wise this week: Don’t bet against Breanna Stewart in the postseason.
Stewart’s on a mission to capture her fourth WNBA ring. She’s willing to do whatever it takes to get there, even if it means playing 40 minutes like she did in the series clincher Tuesday.
Stewart is the best player in this series. Jones is arguably the second. The Liberty are a deeper, more experienced team that seems to be peaking at the right time. If they respect the Dream as a worthwhile threat and remain locked in on the game plan, then the Liberty could be headed to their third WNBA Finals in four years.
Edge: Liberty in 4
Valkyries-Aces series
Matchup to watch: The Valkyries defense might be the league’s best, but the Aces three-headed monster of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray could prove too much for Golden State to handle.
Prediction: Aces in 4.
