China’s Great Firewall Gets Stronger: New Data Suggests VPN Use Is Far Lower Than Believed

Fresh research based on leaked network traffic data suggests China has significantly tightened its control over unauthorized virtual private networks (VPNs), challenging long-held assumptions that large numbers of citizens routinely bypass the country’s internet censorship system.

The findings, published by the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi), analyze data from leaked reports produced by Chinese technology company Geedge Networks and indicate that VPN usage is likely confined to the low single digits rather than the widely cited estimates of up to 30% of internet users.

Leaked Data Offers Rare Glimpse Into China’s Internet Controls

According to GPPi, previous estimates of VPN usage in China ranged from 3% to 30% of internet users, making it difficult to gauge the effectiveness of Beijing’s censorship apparatus.

The newly analyzed Geedge data, however, suggests that “VPN usage in China is probably closer to a few percentage points rather than a third of the population”.

Researchers examined weekly reports from January to July 2023 covering internet traffic in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region across China Mobile and China Unicom networks.

While acknowledging that Xinjiang is among China’s most heavily monitored regions and may not fully represent the country, the researchers argue the findings still provide one of the clearest pictures yet of real-world VPN usage.

Domestic Internet Traffic Vastly Outpaces Overseas Connections

The report found that traffic crossing China’s borders accounted for less than 6% of total internet traffic during the study period, averaging just over 4%.

Researchers attribute the low figure to Beijing’s broader internet strategy, including blocking foreign platforms, promoting domestic alternatives and making unauthorized VPNs increasingly difficult to access.

While state-approved VPNs remain available for businesses and other authorized users, they allow authorities to monitor activity, unlike black-market VPNs.

The researchers said the findings contradict the common perception that unauthorized VPNs remain widely available and frequently used throughout China.

Foreign Apps See Minimal Usage Despite Strong Interest

The analysis also showed that blocked foreign services, including WhatsApp, Google and X, generated only a tiny fraction of total internet traffic. Many attempted connections appeared unsuccessful, with data volumes often too small to fully load webpages.

However, researchers observed a temporary surge in WhatsApp traffic around the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, suggesting that demand for uncensored communication persists whenever censorship barriers weaken. “The government may constrain citizens’ behavior, but it can’t constrain their desires,” the report states.

Researchers Say Demand Remains Despite Tight Controls

Using the leaked data, GPPi estimates that roughly 100,000 people in Xinjiang, around 0.4% of the region’s population, used VPNs daily to access blocked foreign services. Even after accounting for regional differences, the researchers conclude that nationwide VPN usage likely remains in the low single digits.

While the report acknowledges that fear, surveillance and regional conditions may suppress VPN use in Xinjiang more than elsewhere in China, it argues Beijing’s combination of technical restrictions, platform substitution and enforcement has substantially limited access to foreign online services.

At the same time, researchers say periodic spikes in foreign app usage indicate that interest in uncensored content remains strong whenever opportunities arise.