Chris Pappas vs. Karishma Manzur—Final polls, odds in New Hampshire primary

Progressives are hoping a last-minute surge in momentum can boost Karishma Manzur in the Democratic primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, but Representative Chris Pappas holds a lead in polling and prediction markets.

New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning swing state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by only about 3 points in the 2024 election, the most closely divided New England state. But both parties view the race as competitive this year as incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring at the end of her term.

Democrats believe the national environment, driven by anti-Trump fervor, should keep the seat in their hands, but Republicans believe the candidacy of former Senator John Sununu could make the race more competitive than expected, and a few recent polls suggest a statistical tie.

Tuesday’s primary will shape the contours of the general election. Pappas has been viewed as the frontrunner, but progressives are hoping Manzur could pull an upset after a recent poll from the University of New Hampshire suggested a tightening race. Sununu is viewed as the favorite in the Republican primary against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.

Newsweek reached out to the Pappas and Manzur campaigns for comment via email.

Chris Pappas vs. Karishma Manzur: What Polls Show

The latest independent poll of the race from the University of New Hampshire showed Pappas up 13 points over Manzur, 47 percent to 34 percent. It surveyed 2,143 New Hampshire residents, including 881 Democratic primary voters, from August 20-24. The poll’s overall margin of error was plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

That marks a narrowing race from UNH’s earlier polls. Pappas led by 24 points in June, 43 points in April and 54 points in January, according to the pollster.

Other recent polls have given Pappas a larger lead.

A Saint Anselm College poll showed Pappas up 31 points, 59 percent to 28 percent. It surveyed 733 likely Democratic voters from August 17-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points among Democratic voters.

A GQR poll, a Pappas internal, showed him up 56 points, 71 percent to 15 percent. It surveyed 422 Democratic voters from August 19 to 25, and its margin of error was not published. It was first reported by Semafor.

Pappas, who has represented the eastern half of the state in Congress since 2019, is viewed as more moderate. Before entering Congress, he served on the New Hampshire Executive Council. His family owns the Manchester restaurant Puritan Backroom that has been credited with inventing chicken tenders.

Manzur has aligned herself with the insurgent progressive movement that has upset the Democratic establishment across the primaries this year. Manzur has emphasized her support for Medicare for All and criticism of Israel as two key differences against Pappas.

Pappas Favored in Prediction Markets

Pappas also held an advantage over Manzur in the latest data from prediction markets Monday afternoon.

On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Democratic congressman had a 98 percent chance of defeating his progressive rival in the primary.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

Republicans Eye Granite State

Republicans see an increasingly competitive race in New Hampshire after two recent polls showed Sununu, the frontrunner in the GOP primary, in a statistical tie against Pappas in the general election.

The latest poll from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed Sununu receiving 37 percent support and Pappas 36 percent. Other candidates received less than 4 percent support, while 23 percent were undecided about who they would vote for.

The pollster surveyed 600 likely voters in New Hampshire from August 27-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The UNH poll showed a close race as well. In that poll, Sununu led Pappas by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,878 likely voters August 20 to 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

However, other polls have been more favorable to Pappas. A Saint Anselm College poll, conducted among 1,411 likely voters August 17-18, showed Pappas up 7 points on Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent, and 12 points over Brown, 49 percent to 37 percent.

A Peak Insights poll, a GOP internal poll, showed Pappas up a point, 43 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 500 respondents June 24-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

No public polls have tested a general election with Manzur as the Democratic nominee, so it’s less clear how she may fare against Sununu.

Pappas Sounds Alarm

Pappas has sent out several fundraising emails raising alarm about the race, including one titled simply, “We’re losing” sent out last Friday. Some Democrats have been increasingly concerned about the state and have pushed for outside spending to ensure Republicans cannot pull a surprise victory in November, reported The New York Times.

Kathy Sullivan, former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, told the newspaper, “I get these ads, emails, pitching donations. They always put up these other states and never New Hampshire. It drives me crazy.”

She added: “You’ve got to protect all the states that are close. I just don’t see that happening here the way it should be happening.”

Sununu served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 before losing to Shaheen.

He comes from a well-known political family in New Hampshire, as his father and brother are both former governors. The high name ID and popularity of his family in the state adds a layer of uncertainty to the race as Democrats have hoped it would be an easy hold in New Hampshire.

Sununu has also consolidated Republican support and has received the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

Still, it’s been a tough state for Republican Senate candidates. Shaheen won reelection by more than 15 points in 2020. The state’s other Senator Maggie Hassan, another Democrat, won reelection by 9 points in 2022 after winning her first Senate race by only 1,000 votes in 2016.

New Hampshire Leans Blue, But Is Closely Divided

The Granite State is roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. At the federal level, its voters have preferred to back Democrats in recent elections. But it has consistently elected Republican governors at the same time. In the Trump era, Democrats have run strong in Senate races, winning each since 2016.

It’s viewed as a politically moderate state with a libertarian streak. Independents are key to the state.

As of August 3, 351,815 New Hampshirites were not registered with either party, according to the secretary of state’s office. There were 299,976 registered Republicans and 247,069 registered Democrats. Winning independent voters will be key for either candidate in November.

In 2024, the state narrowly went to Harris, 50.7 percent to 47.9 percent. But it gave former President Joe Biden a wider victory in 2020, backing him by 7 points. In 2016, it was one of the country’s closest races, backing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than half a percentage point.

However, in 2024, Republican Kelly Ayotte, a former senator, won the gubernatorial race by about nine points. Former Governor Chris Sununu, the brother of John Sununu, easily won in prior cycles. Hassan was the last Democrat to win a New Hampshire governor race in 2014.

Can Democrats Flip the Senate?

Republicans flipping the New Hampshire Senate seat would complicate Democrats’ narrow path to flipping the upper chamber of Congress. The Democrats already face a difficult Senate map with limited clear opportunities to flip a seat.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats have to pick up four seats in November to win a majority, as Vice President JD Vance is the tiebreaker for Republicans.

In addition to New Hampshire, Democrats are defending two seats in swing states won by Trump in 2024—Georgia and Michigan. They view GOP-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points, and North Carolina, which he carried by 3 points, as top pick-up opportunities.

But there are no other seats up for grabs in states where Trump either won by single digits or lost in 2024, so Democrats have to win in more conservative places like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to stand a chance of flipping the Senate.

If they win all of the more competitive races, they would have to flip two of those seats. If New Hampshire flips to the GOP, they would have to win three to win a majority, a difficult but not impossible task.

What Happens Next

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the Senate race as Lean Democratic, meaning it’s competitive, but that Democrats do have a slight advantage. For Tuesday’s primary, voting hours vary across the state. Polls at many of the largest cities close at 7 p.m. ET, but exact hours depend on municipalities.

Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anna Commander and Anthony Murray.