Congress to Move Forward With Bill Banning Legislators from Political Betting Markets

A House committee has advanced legislation that would prohibit lawmakers in Congress and their immediate family members from participating in and profiting from certain political prediction markets.

The House Administration Committee voted 5-4 on Wednesday to advance the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, a measure introduced by committee chairman Rep. Bryan Steil. The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from trading prediction market contracts tied to political outcomes.

Prediction markets, operated by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of future events. The industry has expanded rapidly in recent years, attracting both retail traders and scrutiny from lawmakers who worry that public officials could use nonpublic information to gain an unfair advantage.

“Members of Congress should be writing public policy, not wagering on its outcome,” Steil said during the committee debate, arguing that the legislation would close a gap in existing ethics rules. According to Steil, current federal law does not explicitly prohibit lawmakers from participating in prediction markets, despite concerns that they may have access to sensitive information unavailable to the public.

Under the proposal, lawmakers who violate the restrictions would face penalties of either $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater. They would also be required to surrender any profits earned from the trade. The legislation further bars members from using taxpayer-funded congressional accounts or campaign funds to pay those penalties.

While committee Democrats generally agreed that lawmakers should not participate in prediction markets, they argued that the House proposal does not go far enough. Rep. Joe Morelle, the committee’s ranking Democrat, criticized the measure as too narrow and urged lawmakers to adopt a broader prohibition similar to one already approved by the Senate.

Morelle proposed an amendment that would have banned members from participating in any prediction market contracts, but the amendment failed. The debate comes after the Senate unanimously approved an internal rule change in April prohibiting senators, Senate staff, and officers from participating in prediction markets.

The measure took effect immediately and was championed by Sen. Bernie Moreno amid concerns that officials could exploit privileged information for financial gain. “Engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates confidence our constituents have in us,” Moreno said when the Senate adopted its rule.

Concerns intensified after reports of suspiciously timed trades related to military actions and geopolitical events raised questions about possible insider trading. In March, Reps. Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith introduced the bipartisan PREDICT Act, which would prohibit members of Congress and senior federal officials from trading on political events, policy decisions, and other government actions.