Dire Strait: Why Economic Threats Might Escalate the War in Iran

Iran could resume attacks on U.S. bases, radar systems, and other facilities that support maritime surveillance and command-and-control systems that help protect and coordinate shipping through the Strait. More  dangerous still, it could attempt to strike U.S. naval vessels directly. Iran is believed to possess anti-ship missiles that, at least on paper, can threaten American warships operating in and around the Persian Gulf. The harder problem is locating and tracking moving targets with sufficient precision, why is why better intelligence, including potentially from partners such as Russia or China, could become an important variable.

So far, Tehran has generally had strong reasons to avoid inflicting large numbers of American casualties, which could trigger a much larger U.S. campaign against Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure. But that restraint depends on Iranian leaders continuing to believe that avoiding such a confrontation leaves them better off. If they conclude instead that prolonged blockade and economic pressure are steadily worsening their position, the threshold for taking that risk could fall. Tehran has already warned that major U.S. attacks on Iranian energy or civilian infrastructure would be met with strikes against comparable infrastructure across the region, potentially widening the confrontation well beyond Hormuz.