How the War is Changing the Geography of Iran’s Influence
These interests are reinforcing one another. Iran’s disruption of Hormuz has increased the strategic importance of Red Sea export routes, giving the Houthis greater leverage over Saudi Arabia and forcing the kingdom to shift exports back to Hormuz, where—despite a recent significant uptick in traffic—passage remains uncertain. From Iran’s perspective, the goal of pressuring Saudi oil exports is to raise the costs of war for Washington and the global economy, giving President Donald Trump another reason to think twice before escalating the campaign.
Between Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
For Saudi Arabia, the interaction between Hormuz and Bab-al-Mandab fronts creates a vulnerability. While it is true that “shuttle runs” through the strait have helped Gulf oil exporters get their goods out and eased market pressure, shipments remain at risk of Iranian disruption.
As with the Houthis and Bab al-Mandab, Tehran need not close the strait entirely: intermittent attacks can sustain uncertainty and raise shipping costs. Given Houthi advances in Yemen, diverting exports to Red Sea ports is not necessarily a safer option. Riyadh can shift between routes but cannot entirely evade the risk of disruption.
