Hurricane Genevieve spaghetti models show today’s path after Cat 5 peak

Hurricane Genevieve, which previously strengthened into the eastern Pacific’s first Category 5 storm since 2024, is expected to weaken over the coming days as it tracks west-northwest, according to forecasters.

According to AccuWeather, Genevieve developed from a tropical depression on July 24 far off Mexico’s coast, strengthening into a tropical storm later that day. It reached hurricane status on July 25 and then underwent rapid intensification on July 26, becoming a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour. By Sunday night, AccuWeather reported that Genevieve’s winds had increased to 160 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane.

“While eastern Pacific Major Hurricane Genevieve poses no direct threat to land, it has become the most powerful hurricane in the waters surrounding North and Central America this year and the first Category 5 hurricane since Kristy in 2024,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

The outlet added that as of Thursday morning, Genevieve was a 100-mph, Category 2 hurricane.

In a Thursday morning update, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Genevieve is expected to weaken in the coming days.

The system was moving west-northwestward at around 9 miles per hour—a general motion with a slight increase in forward speed expected over the next few days.

The agency reported maximum sustained winds near 100 miles per hour, with higher gusts.

The system is forecast to become post-tropical this weekend, it said.

Genevieve’s rapid intensification is notable even by eastern Pacific standards. After becoming a hurricane on July 25, it strengthened into a Category 5 storm in roughly two days—a pace comparable to some of the basin’s most significant hurricanes.

While not matching the record-setting explosive intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015), which strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in about 48 hours and became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere by maximum sustained winds, Genevieve’s rapid strengthening places it among the more intense eastern Pacific hurricanes of the past decade.

It also marks the first Category 5 hurricane in the basin since Kristy (2024), highlighting how uncommon such storms remain despite favorable ocean temperatures during active El Niño-influenced seasons.

Other notable eastern Pacific Category 5 hurricanes—including Marie (2014), Linda (1997), and Patricia (2015)—also underwent periods of exceptionally rapid intensification, underscoring the basin’s ability to produce powerful hurricanes when atmospheric and oceanic conditions align.

The NHC warned that swells caused by the hurricane are impacting parts of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula. “These swells will persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” it said.

DaSilva told Newsweek that no direct impacts are expected in Mexico, though rough surf and dangerous rip currents will persist along the west coast of Mexico and in Southern California through the week.

Safety Recommendations for Southern California Beachgoers

• Check local beach and surf advisories before entering the water.
• Swim only at beaches staffed by lifeguards and remain within designated swimming areas.
• Stay out of the ocean if red flags or hazardous surf warnings are posted.
• If caught in a rip current, remain calm, float, and swim parallel to the shoreline until free of the current before heading back to shore.
• Keep children and inexperienced swimmers away from rough surf and shoreline break zones, where powerful waves can quickly knock people off their feet.

AccuWeather said it expects “numerous” tropical storms and hurricanes for the eastern, as well the central Pacific basins this year, citing the impacts of El Niño—a natural climate pattern characterized partly by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The phenomenon is associated with increased tropical storm and hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific but reduced activity in the Atlantic.

“While lower wind shear as a result of El Niño did play a role in the rapid intensification, it was not the only factor,” said DaSilva. “Very warm sea-surface temperatures along with high Ocean Heat Content—warm water with depth in the ocean—also contributed as well.”

The outlet is forecasting 17 to 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific, with nine to 13 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center previously said an above-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season was most likely, assigning it a 70 percent chance, compared with a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. The outlook called for 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes and five to nine major hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Storm Names

The official 2026 eastern north Pacific storm-name list, as published by the NHC, is:

• Amanda
• Boris
• Cristina
• Douglas
• Elida
• Fausto
• Genevieve
• Hernán
• Iselle
• Julio
• Karina
• Lowell
• Marie
• Norbert
• Odalys
• Polo
• Rachel
• Simon
• Trudy
• Vance
• Winnie
• Xavier
• Yolanda
• Zeke

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and James Debens