Johor By-Election Becomes Early Test of Whether Cost-of-Living Concerns Can Dent Anwar’s Support

Voters across Malaysia’s southern state of Johor cast ballots Saturday in the 16th Johor State Legislative Assembly election, a closely watched contest that is expected to gauge public sentiment toward Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government amid persistent cost-of-living concerns and shifting political alliances.

The 56 seats in the Johor State Legislative Assembly are all up for grabs. The election will decide the fate of the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) government of Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi or if opposition parties can register any major gains. Voting was still counting on Saturday evening and unofficial results were starting to come in from individual constituencies.

Why the Johor Election Matters Beyond the State

The election has been regarded as an early political test for Anwar’s federal Madani government, even though it is in the hands of the state government of Johor. The poll will be the most definitive expression of the public mood so far on the performance of the unity government in the run-up to the next general election, along with the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug. 1.

The race is also the first time in Peninsular Malaysia when Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN compete directly in elections since their partnership in federal government after the 2022 general election.

BN entered polling day defending the two-thirds majority it secured in the 2022 Johor state election, when it won 40 of the assembly’s 56 seats. PH, meanwhile, is seeking to improve on its previous performance despite analysts viewing a change in government as unlikely.

Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, told the South China Morning Post that PH’s realistic objective was to expand its representation rather than win control of the state.

“For PH, a good result would be to win more than the 12 seats they had. If they win fewer than 12 seats, that would be a bad result,” Azmi said.

Cost of Living Emerges as a Key Campaign Issue

Political analysts say bread-and-butter issues such as rising living costs, housing affordability, employment opportunities and wages have become more influential than traditional party loyalties for many Johor voters.

According to Fulcrum, the analysis platform of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Johor’s economy expanded 6.4% in 2025 and attracted RM110 billion in foreign direct investment. Despite those headline figures, many residents say they have yet to experience meaningful improvements in their daily lives.

A 30-year-old service worker in Skudai told the South China Morning Post that soaring housing prices and higher living costs remained the biggest concerns for many residents.

“My primary concern is skyrocketing housing prices and living costs. Parties need to prove that the economy in Johor can support those who work in Johor, instead of forcing them to go into Singapore to make a living,” the voter said.

Anwar has sought to address economic concerns through subsidies and social assistance measures, while also urging Johoreans to participate in the election.

“I call on all Johoreans, including those who are away from home, to return and exercise their people’s power to choose a trustworthy, capable leadership that will truly work for the state,” Anwar said in a Facebook post on July 10.

Coalition Tensions and Opposition Divisions

The campaign also highlighted tensions within Malaysia’s evolving political landscape.

Anwar had urged the partners in the federal unity government to work more closely together, and his calls for such cooperation were met with criticism from BN’s decision to contest 56 seats with no federal unity partner.

Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) had to deal with its own internal problems while the campaign was ongoing. There was increased political friction following calls from a Johorean royal member for the state to have a bigger share of tax revenue and after a UMNO dropped member claimed that the royal family interfered with the selection of candidates, which the party have rejected.

Divisions within the opposition also became more apparent after PAS urged supporters not to back PH candidates in direct contests with BN. Bersatu later encouraged parts of its voter base to boycott PAS candidates or instead support PH in retaliation, underscoring strains within the opposition bloc.

Results Could Shape Malaysia’s Political Landscape

The Johor election carries implications beyond the state, particularly as political parties prepare for future electoral contests.

BN’s commanding victory in the 2022 Johor state election did not translate into comparable success in the subsequent general election, where the coalition won only nine of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats. Political observers will therefore be watching whether Saturday’s results reflect changing voter priorities or reinforce existing political trends.

Official results are expected later on Saturday. Along with the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug. 1, the outcome is likely to influence coalition strategies and alliance-building ahead of Malaysia’s next general election.