Kyle Shanahan knows Raiders vulnerabilities. Can they do anything about it?
PLAYBOOK: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (4-4) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-1)
The worst thing the Raiders put on film last Sunday might have been the first half against the Jets. The second worst? Giving Kyle Shanahan a reason to keep watching.
The Jets ran for 140 yards before halftime. Whatever the Raiders told themselves about getting it fixed during the break, and to their credit they did, Shanahan gets to see both halves. He gets to see where the holes were, who came down to plug them and what that left open somewhere else. Give Shanahan that much information and he’ll have something waiting for the guy who made the right adjustment a week ago.
That’s the assignment Sunday in Santa Clara, where the Raiders (4-4) will play their first regular-season game in the Bay Area since leaving Oakland after the 2019 season. The homecoming means plenty to the people in the stands. Down on the field, the more pressing issue is what to do about a 6-1 team that might be the best the Raiders have faced.
They got a preview two weeks ago. Sean McVay figured out pretty quickly that his Rams could move the Raiders off the ball. By halftime it was 28-6, Matthew Stafford had thrown three touchdown passes and whatever the Raiders had planned for the afternoon was pretty well beside the point.
Shanahan has a different quarterback and his own way of calling a game. He’s every bit as willing to keep running the same play until somebody gives him a reason to stop.
So, where do the Raiders start? By letting the guys up front handle more of the work. If it takes a safety coming downhill on every first down to hold Christian McCaffrey to 4 yards, Brock Purdy is going to have an awfully good idea where to look the first time he pulls the ball back. The reward for winning a few of those downs with the front seven is getting Maxx Crosby a third-and-8 on which he can finally quit worrying about who has the ball and go get the quarterback.
Kirk Cousins can help, too. Brock Bowers caught two touchdown passes against the Jets, and there’s no sense waiting until the Raiders get near the goal line to see what the 49ers have in mind for him. Get him the ball early. Make San Francisco decide how much help it wants to devote to him. Then find out what that does for Tre Tucker downfield and whether Mike Washington Jr. can keep the offense out of third-and-long.
The Raiders showed in New York they can play their way out of a bad half. The danger Sunday is assuming they’ll get another one. There’s a considerable difference between asking Cousins to finish a competitive game and handing him the ball after halftime with instructions to go catch Shanahan.
Marquee matchup Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard vs. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan
Keep an eye on what happens when Shanahan sends a man in motion. Somebody on Leonard’s defense has to travel with him or pass him off, and the moment two Raiders hesitate over whose job that is, McCaffrey has room. Leonard’s best answer might be to simplify things enough that his guys can get lined up and play fast. The trick is doing that without giving Purdy the same picture on every snap. One way to change it is to show a safety near the line, then have him drop underneath a crossing route. That works a whole lot better if Leonard can trust the other 10 guys to handle the handoff.
Marquee matchup Raiders safety Treydan Stukes vs. 49ers tight end George Kittle
Stukes helped force the Jets to settle for a field goal near the goal line last week, a good example of what the rookie safety can do when he sees a play and goes after it. Kittle makes a living off that very instinct. He can drive a defender out of a running lane on one snap, then give him the same first two steps on the next before slipping behind him. When Stukes draws that assignment, the hard part will be staying patient long enough to figure out which Kittle he’s getting. And if Kittle does catch one underneath, get him down. A 6-yard completion is a perfectly livable outcome. Letting him drag somebody past the sticks is where the trouble starts.
The pick: 49ers 38, Raiders 24
Cousins and Bowers give the Raiders enough offense to make this interesting into the second half. At some point, though, the Raiders are going to need consecutive stops, and that’s a tough place to put a defense that just gave up 33 points to the Jets. I see McCaffrey keeping the 49ers ahead of the chains and Purdy finding Kittle behind a linebacker who takes one step too many toward the run. The Raiders hang around. San Francisco scores late to put it away.
Key stat : 27 yards
After giving up 140 rushing yards in the first half against the Jets, the Raiders allowed just 27 in the second. Thanks mostly to the Jets foolishly running the ball just four times in the second half. The Raiders won’t be that lucky on Sunday.
