La Niña ending soon: The impact on spring storms
AUSTIN (KXAN) — La Niña only just started in December, and already we’re setting our sights on its departure.
On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its monthly update on ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is currently in its cool phase known as La Niña.
As you may know by now, La Niña is driven by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in specific regions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
These waters have been cool enough to be considered in a La Niña phase, but not cold enough to be considered a strong one by current metrics.
How much longer will La Niña last?
La Niña is expected to continue through the rest of this winter, but should end sometime in the spring. NOAA’s February forecast update gives 66% odds that La Niña will end and ENSO Neutral (neither warm or cold phase of ENSO) will begin during the March-May time frame.
The ENSO Neutral phase is favored through the summer (June-July-August), with 60% likelihood, before odds drop below 50% for each phase, La Niña, Neutral or El Niño, into next fall. Of those choices, ENSO Neutral still has slightly higher odds, followed by another La Niña with second highest probability.
If La Niña continues into spring
While the phase of ENSO impacts the winter season the most, we can see some impacts in the spring too.
According to NOAA, large hail and tornado events are more common in the central and southern United States during the spring months (March-May) if La Niña is present.
Right now, the odds of La Niña continuing through spring are roughly 34%.
As things stand, that could mean more instances of severe weather in Texas, especially early in our severe weather season, which begins in March.
