Long-dated US debt rises as Nvidia woes revive haven demand
The yield moves have been modest, but proved resilient to a recovery in oil prices
Published Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 08:54 PM
LONG-DATED Treasuries rose as trading resumed on Thursday (Nov 12), with turmoil around Nvidia weighing on technology shares and encouraging demand for safer assets.
The yield moves were modest, but proved resilient to a recovery in oil prices, suggesting some haven bid. US 30-year yields slipped as much as three basis points to 5.32 per cent, while those on the 10-year steadied around 4.99 per cent. There was no cash trading on Wednesday due to Veterans’ Day holiday.
Nvidia is a bellwether for the technology investment boom that has bolstered US growth expectations and driven bond yields higher.
Its chips are key to the artificial intelligence build-out, making the prospect of a replacement to chief executive officer Jensen Huang unsettling for investors given his central role in the company.
“All these headlines on Jensen Huang are further sowing doubt about the AI story and triggering a small safe haven bid in Treasuries,” said Carol Kong, strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“There is no doubt every market participant is watching this closely given how critical Nvidia is to the AI investment boom, and by extension, the global economy.”
Heavy AI investment has helped to push US yields higher in recent weeks as investors expect the boom to boost growth, productivity and corporate spending, reducing the case for lower interest rates.
Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries hit the highest since 2002 over the past months.
“Bonds can benefit from a wobble in AI,” said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, in an interview on Bloomberg TV. She sees scopes for bigger gains in 10-year notes. “It’s been a huge part of what’s driving growth, especially in the US.”
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Nasdaq futures dropped 0.8 per cent as Nvidia tumbled 7 per cent in pre-market trading.
The company’s board is meeting to discuss Huang’s future after he admitted to an affair with a woman US officials reportedly believe is a Chinese spy, according to a person familiar with the matter.
As the world’s largest and most liquid government bond market, Treasuries have traditionally been a natural refuge for investors during periods of stress.
That role has weakened in recent years amid persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing and policy uncertainty. But recent bouts of weakness in technology stocks have seen Treasuries regain some of their haven appeal.
Fed hikes
Meanwhile, short-dated Treasuries draw little support from haven demand as investors continue to worry about inflation, given persistently high energy prices and hotter-than-expected price growth in October. The two-year yield rose three basis points to 4.76 per cent.
Federal Reserve officials opened the door to more aggressive tightening, and swaps are pricing 28 basis points of rises in December. That means traders view a quarter-point hike as certain and see a small risk of a jumbo half-point move.
Focus now turns to comments from the Fed’s Beth Hammack, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Jeff Schmid and John Williams later Thursday. Attention is also on a sale of US 30-year notes.
“The question into the last stretch of the week is whether the market has now done enough on Fed pricing, or whether officials are prepared to validate an increasingly aggressive hiking path,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a multi-asset strategist at Mizuho International. BLOOMBERG
