Lula Leads Flavio Bolsonaro in New Brazil Poll

• Datafolha poll shows Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro.
• Lula leads runoff scenario by five points.
• Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential campaign July 25.
• U.S. tariffs emerge as election campaign issue.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 40% to 32% in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll released ahead of the Oct. 4 vote. The survey, conducted July 22-23 among 2,004 voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The poll also projects Lula winning a potential runoff by 48% to 43%, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner in a race likely to extend to a second round because no candidate currently commands an outright majority. Under Brazil’s electoral system, a candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff.

The latest findings come as conservatives formally unite behind Flavio Bolsonaro following his father’s disqualification from public office, while new U.S. tariffs and internal divisions within the Bolsonaro family add fresh uncertainty to the campaign.

Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Maintaining National Lead

Datafolha, one of Brazil’s most established polling firms, found Lula leading with 40% voter support, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 32%. Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado received 4%, while Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each polled 3%.

The survey suggests Lula retains a clear advantage despite slowing economic growth and persistent concerns over inflation. Brazil’s economy expanded 3.4% in 2024, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), while annual consumer inflation measured by the IPCA index stood at 5.35% in June 2026, remaining above the Central Bank of Brazil’s target of 3%.

A separate survey conducted by Indexa Pesquisas during the same period also placed Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, indicating that multiple polling organizations currently show a similar electoral trend rather than an isolated result.

Flavio Bolsonaro Takes Over Conservative Banner

Flavio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign on July 25 after the Liberal Party (PL) selected him to replace former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was barred from seeking public office following a ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) that declared him ineligible until 2030 for abuse of political power.

The 45-year-old senator has sought to present himself as a less confrontational conservative candidate while pledging to reduce crime, lower taxes and stimulate economic growth. His campaign, however, continues to face challenges in attracting support from Brazil’s influential centrist parties, whose congressional backing often determines legislative stability.

Flavio is also reportedly facing a legal challenge over his own candidacy. Although no court has ruled on the matter, any adverse decision could force Brazil’s conservative movement to reconsider its electoral strategy only weeks before voting begins.

Bolsonaro Family Rift Risks Conservative Unity

The campaign has also been overshadowed by a public dispute between Flavio Bolsonaro and former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, one of the conservative movement’s most influential political figures.

Michelle Bolsonaro accused Flavio of treating her disrespectfully during a telephone conversation. Flavio later publicly apologized, but the disagreement exposed divisions within the Bolsonaro political family at a critical stage of the campaign.

The episode could carry electoral consequences. Women represented 52.7% of Brazil’s 156.4 million registered voters for the 2024 municipal elections, according to the Superior Electoral Court, making female voters one of the largest and most influential voting blocs ahead of the presidential race.

U.S. Tariffs Introduce New Dimension

The Datafolha survey was conducted shortly after the United States announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, adding an international trade issue to the domestic election campaign.

The tariffs are expected to affect export-oriented manufacturing industries concentrated in southeastern Brazil, the country’s largest economic region. São Paulo alone accounted for approximately 31% of Brazil’s gross domestic product in 2024, according to IBGE, making the state particularly sensitive to changes in international trade conditions.

The development may strengthen Lula’s argument that Brazil should pursue an independent economic policy while complicating Flavio Bolsonaro’s efforts to defend the close political relationship his father maintained with President Donald Trump. Neither candidate has yet outlined detailed proposals to mitigate the tariff’s potential impact on Brazilian exporters.

Election Heads Toward Competitive Runoff

Although Lula currently leads in both first-round and runoff scenarios, Brazil’s two-round electoral system means the campaign remains highly competitive, with alliances, debates and regional voting patterns likely to shape the final outcome over the coming weeks.

More than 156 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the October election, according to the Superior Electoral Court, making it one of the world’s largest democratic exercises. Turnout has exceeded 79% in each of Brazil’s last three presidential elections, underscoring the importance of late campaign momentum.

With just weeks remaining before the first round, the race is expected to focus increasingly on economic management, public security and Brazil’s international relations, while candidates compete to consolidate support among undecided and centrist voters who could ultimately determine the country’s next president.