MAGA more motivated than Democrats for 2026 midterms: poll
‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) supporters appear to be the most enthusiastic voting bloc ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll.
The HarrisX survey found that Trump/MAGA Republicans were the most likely to say they were “definitely going to vote” in the 2026 congressional midterm elections on November 3: 75 percent of MAGA respondents expressed that enthusiasm while 70 percent of Republicans gave the same response and 63 percent of Democrats.
Voter enthusiasm ahead of an election is often viewed as an early indicator of turnout strength and campaign engagement, although self-reported voting intention does not necessarily translate into actual turnout.
The U.S. midterms will decide whether President Donald Trump’s GOP retains control of one or both chambers in Congress, or if the Democratic Party will be able to win back lost voters after the 2024 presidential election. The midterms are not just about who governs the country, but how effectively they can do so; unified control can make it easier for a party to bring in sweeping policy changes, and a more divided government can halt that process.
MAGA Republicans Express Highest Voter Enthusiasm In Poll
The Harris Poll, which was conducted between July 9 and 10, and surveyed 1,019 registered voters, found that 85 percent of Trump/MAGA Republicans reported that they were likely to vote in the 2026 midterms (combining the categories of “definitely going to vote” and “probably going to vote.”) The poll had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, 78 percent of Democrats gave the same response, as did 78 percent of traditional Republicans and 63 percent of Independents.
Democrats and Independents also had higher percentages of voters claiming they were “definitely not going to participate.” Seven percent of Democrats and Independents indicated that they did not plan to cast ballots in the midterms, while only 1 percent of MAGA supporters and 4 percent of traditional Republicans said the same.
Those who reported they were generally unlikely to vote (combining the “definitely not going to participate,” and “probably not going to participate” categories) were most likely to be Independents (16 percent), followed by Democrats (13 percent), traditional Republicans (9 percent) and Trump/MAGA Republicans (4 percent).
Of the 1,019 registered voters HarrisX surveyed, 196 of respondents classified themselves as Trump/MAGA Republicans and 183 said they were traditional Republicans.
Poll Also Finds Voters More Likely To Vote For A Democrat
Despite finding elevated enthusiasm among MAGA/Trump Republicans, the same poll also found that—when asked if they had to vote today, if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress—more participants said they would elect a Democratic candidate (44 percent to 41 percent Republican, 3 percent would vote other and 11 percent didn’t know).
In a further query where participants who had previously opted for “other” or “don’t know” were forced to choose between voting for a Democratic or Republican candidate, the figure rose to 52 percent for Democrat and 48 percent Republican.
Overall, 52 percent of participants claimed they would lean toward a Democratic candidate, while 47 percent said they would lean toward a Republican candidate.
This was the case even though there were more participants that reported being Republican than Democrat—379 Republicans, 358 Democrats, 270 Independents and 12 others took part in the survey.
However, early voter sentiment may not translate onto the actual ballots cast in the midterms—the poll’s findings simply indicate that while MAGA Republican enthusiasm is high, more Americans could be leaning toward choosing a Democratic candidate in the election at this point in time.
