Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX’s AI Business May Be Worth More Than Investors Think
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said SpaceX‘s recent stock selloff has pushed shares toward a level that implies investors are assigning no value to its artificial intelligence business, calling the drop an attractive buying opportunity. In a note to clients Friday, Jonas set a $300 price target on SpaceX, with more than half of that valuation coming from the company’s AI operations.
The assessment arrives as SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 50% from their post-IPO peak and roughly 15% below the $135 IPO price set in June, with investors bracing for further pressure when an early-shareholder lockup expires next month. Jonas argues the market is overlooking AI contracts already signed with customers including Google, even as the segment continues to weigh on near-term earnings.
What Morgan Stanley Said
Jonas wrote that he sees “the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals” as creating an attractive entry point for long-term investors, according to Bloomberg.
He said many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall further toward $100 as lockup restrictions on insider sales begin expiring next month, a level he said would imply zero or even negative value for the company’s AI business.
Of Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target, more than $150 per share is attributed specifically to SpaceX’s AI operations, with the remainder tied to launch services, Starship, satellite connectivity and other space infrastructure, according to TheStreet. All four banks that underwrote SpaceX’s IPO have also issued buy ratings on the stock. Namely, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan.
The AI Business Case
Morgan Stanley’s thesis rests on SpaceX’s ability to combine launch capacity, Starlink’s satellite network and compute infrastructure from xAI and its Colossus data center into a single business, rather than valuing it as a traditional aerospace company.
Jonas pointed to signed customer contracts as evidence the AI business already has commercial traction. Reuters reported in June that Google agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million a month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs and related hardware, a deal that followed a similar agreement with Anthropic in May, according to TechCrunch.
Currently, Starlink remains the only consistently profitable part of SpaceX’s business, while both its launch operations and AI division operate at a loss.
Stock Performance Since IPO
SpaceX shares closed at $115 on July 24, down 2.7% for the session, after the company’s record $86 billion initial public offering priced at $135 per share in mid-June. The stock reached an intraday high above $200 within days of its debut before falling sharply, a decline of roughly 50% from its peak that has intensified investor scrutiny of the company’s capital spending and launch schedule.
Investors are watching an Aug. 6 lockup expiration, when a large block of insider-held shares becomes eligible for sale, a milestone Jonas said could push the stock toward $100 in the near term before any rebound tied to AI valuation plays out.
