MUNRO, HILL: Migration to Alberta returns to norms after Notley-Trudeau era exodus

Article content

For decades, Alberta has been a magnet for Canadians who come to work and live in Canada’s most prosperous province, but during the Notley-Trudeau era, more Albertans left the province than other Canadians moved to it. However, according to our new study, Alberta migration patterns have returned to historical norms.

Article content

There are many reasons why individuals choose to move, but economic opportunity (e.g. the ability to find a well-paying job) often plays a role. And indeed, Alberta has long been recognized as a place for economic opportunity and the top destination for people migrating within Canada.

Article content

Recommended Videos

Article content

Alberta attraction

From 1995/96 to 2024/25 (the latest year of available data), Alberta attracted 2.2 million people from the rest of Canada while 1.6 million left for a different province. In other words, Alberta attracted a net total of 538,824 people (representing 10.7% of its 2025 population) over the past three decades — the most of any province in absolute terms and relative to its population. Most of this migration (409,008 on net) has been younger working-age people between 18 to 44 years old.

More specifically, from 1995/96 to 2014/15, Alberta attracted an average of 7.1 newcomers (on net) from other parts of Canada each year for every 1,000 Alberta residents, and the province lost more than it attracted only once (2009/10) during this period.

However, beginning in 2015/16, Alberta began losing people (on net) at an average annual rate of 1.9 migrants per 1,000 residents. This trend lasted six years until the middle of the pandemic when in 2021/22 Alberta resumed attracting people from the rest of Canada (at an average rate of 6.5 migrants per 1,000 residents). Since this six-year period stands in such stark contrast historically, it’s worth examining why, from 2015/16 to 2020/21, Alberta saw a sustained outflow of people to the rest of Canada.

Article content

One likely factor was the 2014/15 decline in oil prices, which shook the provincial economy and likely prompted many Albertans (particularly those working in oil and gas) to seek opportunities elsewhere in Canada. But also in 2015, Rachel Notley was elected premier of Alberta and Justin Trudeau was elected prime minister — and they enacted policy agendas that hurt the economic interests of Albertans. On the provincial side, the Notley government raised taxes and weakened Alberta’s long-standing tax advantage in North America, recorded a string of budget deficits and racked up mountains of debt, and introduced onerous energy regulations that pushed investment out of the province. Similarly, the Trudeau government enacted a slew of harmful federal policies that undermined Alberta’s economy by further stifling the province’s oil and gas sector.

Progress made

Given this context, it’s unsurprising many Albertans chose to leave.

While Alberta still faces challenges, there’s been some progress on the policy front. For example, some of the Notley government’s tax hikes have been reversed (namely business taxes) and the Smith government has taken some steps to address federal energy policies that impact the oil and gas industry (though more work is needed on this front). These pro-growth policies signal to Canadians across the country that Alberta is open for business.

The latest wave of interprovincial migration to Alberta represents a return to historical norms that prevailed prior to the Notley-Trudeau era, and suggests Canadians across the country once again see the province as a place for economic opportunity.

Grady Munro and Tegan Hill are senior analysts at the Fraser Institute.

Article content