OPEC+ Set To Hold October Oil Policy Steady

OPEC+ is expected to leave its October oil production policy unchanged at its Sept. 6 online meeting, according to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters. The decision would follow the final September step in unwinding a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day voluntary production adjustment introduced in 2023, while most other OPEC+ production curbs remain in place through the end of 2026.

The pause comes as the Iran war continues to restrict oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency said flows through the waterway, which normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products a day, have been severely disrupted, limiting how effectively OPEC+ production decisions can influence physical supply.

OPEC+ Keeps October Output Policy on Hold

Seven OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have been conducting the monthly meetings that oversee the unwinding of the 2023 voluntary adjustments. OPEC said the seven countries approved another 188,000-barrel-per-day adjustment for September, following identical 188,000-barrel-per-day increases for July and August.

The September adjustment was the latest step in returning the 1.65 million barrels per day that the eight participating countries had originally committed to withhold in April 2023. OPEC’s June ministerial statement separately reaffirmed that the broader OPEC+ production framework would remain in place through Dec. 31, 2026.

Reuters reported Sept. 6 that OPEC+ was expected to maintain the existing October policy, with actual production remaining below some targets because of disruptions caused by the Iran war and other supply constraints. The expected pause therefore preserves current policy while the alliance assesses conditions before making further changes.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Limits OPEC+ Supply Control

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products each day, equivalent to roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, according to the IEA. About 15 million barrels per day of crude alone passed through the waterway in 2025, with China and India together receiving 44% of those crude exports.

The IEA said flows through Hormuz fell from about 20 million barrels per day before the conflict to near-standstill levels, forcing Gulf producers to rely on alternative pipelines, storage and shipping routes. Saudi Arabia increased crude flows through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu to more than 5 million barrels per day in early June, while the UAE can move about 1.8 million barrels per day through its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The disruption has reduced the immediate impact of quota changes because additional production cannot fully compensate for crude that cannot reach international buyers through normal routes. The IEA’s August Oil Market Report projected global oil supply would fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102 million barrels per day as Middle Eastern and Russian losses outweighed gains elsewhere.

2027 Quota Review Becomes OPEC+’s Next Major Test

OPEC+ has begun preparing the production baselines that will underpin its 2027 quota system. At its June ministerial meeting, the alliance explicitly called for completion of maximum sustainable production capacity assessments for all participating countries to establish the reference points for 2027.

The technical assessment is particularly important because individual producers have competing interests in the next quota framework. Reuters reported that the capacity review is being conducted by Dallas-based petroleum consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton, with assessments expected later in September.

OPEC’s current framework keeps the overall production level agreed at its 38th ministerial meeting in place through the end of 2026, while the alliance’s next full OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled for Nov. 29. That timetable leaves the capacity review and subsequent negotiations as the key mechanism for determining how production limits will be structured in 2027.

For the near term, the expected October pause gives OPEC+ room to assess whether Gulf shipping conditions improve before changing output policy. The IEA has also documented substantial alternative export capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, providing some additional supply flexibility while the alliance works toward the 2027 quota framework.