Report shows where green card applicants wait the longest

A new analysis of the U.S. employment-based immigration system estimates that some applicants for permanent residency face waits stretching decades into the future, with professionals from India projected to encounter the longest delays because of visa backlogs and statutory limits on the number of green cards available each year.

The analysis, published by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), examines backlogs in the employment-based first, second and third preference categories, known as EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3. The report estimates that a highly skilled worker from India with a labor certification application or employment-based immigrant petition filed in January 2026 or later could face a potential wait of 179 years in EB-2, 38 years in EB-3, and four to five years in EB-1.

NFAP said the projected delays stem from a backlog that has accumulated over many years because of the annual cap on employment-based immigrant visas, per-country limits on visa allocations and continued demand for foreign-born scientists, engineers and other highly skilled workers. The organization said Indians entering the EB-2 or EB-3 queue in 2025 or 2026 could face waits measured in decades if immigration law remains unchanged.

A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department told Newsweek in an email that it is common for it to reach annual limits on available employment-based visas for certain visa categories and nationalities before the end of the fiscal year.

The department said it routinely notifies applicants and employers on the website when annual limits have been reached.

The lengthy waits come as the Trump administration has tightened rules and increased scrutiny across several legal immigration pathways, including employment-based visas and green card applications. The administration has imposed or proposed higher fees, expanded vetting and other restrictions affecting foreign workers, while also seeking to make it harder for some immigrants to obtain or maintain legal status.

The department told Newsweek it characterized every visa decision as a national security decision and said that it processes all applications in accordance with statutory requirements and the date the immigrant visa petition was filed.

According to the State Department, a rigorous visa process has been enacted as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to put the interests of Americans first and protect the citizens.

What Does the Report Show?

According to the report, the employment-based backlog in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories reached an estimated 1.26 million people by December 2025, up from about 1.05 million in April 2020, an increase of 20.6 percent. The estimated EB-2 backlog rose 22.9 percent during that period while the EB-3 backlog increased 30.1 percent. The EB-1 backlog declined by 16.6 percent.

NFAP’s analysis found that India accounts for the largest share of the backlog. The report estimates that nearly 1 million Indian nationals were waiting for employment-based green cards as of December 2025, representing about 79 percent of the total backlog in the three categories examined. Of those, an estimated 731,566 were in EB-2, and 213,414 were in EB-3.

The report’s projections show vastly different estimated wait times depending on country of birth and visa category. For applicants filing in 2026, NFAP estimates waits of five years in EB-1, 25 years in EB-2 and seven years in EB-3 for Chinese nationals. For applicants from the Philippines, the projected waits are zero years in EB-1, about 0.3 years in EB-2, and six years in EB-3.

While NFAP’s estimates are based on current backlogs and visa availability, the organization stressed they are projections rather than guaranteed outcomes for individual applicants. Waiting times can vary based on an applicant’s priority date, future demand, changes in law, and the availability of additional visa numbers. The estimates also do not include government processing times.

The report attributes the backlog primarily to two features of U.S. immigration law. The first is the annual limit of 140,000 employment-based green cards, a figure established by Congress in 1990 that includes not only principal applicants but also dependent spouses and children. The second is the per-country cap, which generally limits nationals of a single country to no more than 7 percent of available immigrant visas in a fiscal year.

The report notes that workers from large-population countries such as India, China and the Philippines are disproportionately affected because they compete for the same annual allocation as nationals of much smaller countries.

The analysis points to the way the backlog accumulated over time. In fiscal year 2016 alone, NFAP estimates that more than 98,000 Indians, including dependents, were approved in the EB-2 category, while only 4,407 received permanent residence in that category, adding more than 90,000 people to the queue in a single year. Similar patterns occurred in subsequent years, according to the report.

For September 2026, the Visa Bulletin lists an EB-1 final action date of October 15, 2022, for India and July 1, 2023, for China, while EB-1 remains current for the Philippines and most other countries. In EB-2, the category is listed as unavailable for India, while the final action date for China is September 1, 2021. EB-2 remains current for the Philippines and most other chargeability areas. In EB-3, the final action date is January 1, 2014, for India, January 1, 2022, for China, and August 1, 2023, for the Philippines.

The State Department said the bulletin is intended to notify people of the next steps in the immigrant visa process and collect required documents and request to schedule a visa interview appointment.

It pointed out that the bulletin does not confer immigration status nor guarantee either an interview appointment or approval of an immigrant visa.

The immigrant visa issuance rates have decreased for certain countries as a result of the administrations focus on national security and public safety, the spokesperson from the department told Newsweek. They said the department has also advanced the dates of filing and final action for several categories.

The report also notes that more than 280,000 additional employment-based green cards were issued above the standard annual allocation between fiscal years 2020 and 2024 because unused family-sponsored visa numbers became available to employment-based categories. Despite the additional visas, NFAP estimates that the overall employment-based backlog continued to grow.

NFAP concluded that, absent legislative changes, backlogs in the employment-based immigration system are likely to persist, leaving some foreign professionals waiting years or decades for permanent residence depending on their visa category and country of birth.

Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Tobias Meyjes and Anthony Murray.