Steve Hilton’s chances of flipping California governor seat
Republican Steve Hilton is headed to a general-election race against former U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra, as Hilton aims to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years.
Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom can’t run for reelection because he’s term-limited, leaving an open seat, and Republicans are looking to seize the opportunity. The GOP has largely coalesced around Hilton, consolidating support, as the party hopes that frustrations in the state over illegal immigration and crime will be enough to propel Hilton to the governor’s mansion.
On Tuesday night, the Decision Desk predicted that Hilton won the second spot to proceed to the general election. President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social, praising Hilton’s reported advancement too.
According to the Associated Press, Hilton is in second place with 25.1 percent of the votes compared to Democrat Tom Steyer’s 22.4 percent. According to the news outlet, 83 percent of the votes are counted as of 12:21 a.m. Tuesday but has not called the race for a second candidate yet.
Steve Hilton’s Chances of Beating Becerra, According to Polls
Polls indicate that Hilton could be a contender for governor, but he’ll have an uphill battle. A SurveyUSA poll in the days leading up to the election showed that Hilton had 20 percent of the vote, alongside Steyer, also at 20 percent. Becerra was in third at 17 percent.
An Emerson College poll had Hilton not even in the top two. Becerra had 28 percent of the vote, followed by Steyer at 22 percent. Hilton came in third at 21 percent.
It’s also possible that Democrats’ lead on Hilton could widen now that the primary is over. California’s gubernatorial race had been an extremely crowded primary and while Republicans have largely backed Hilton, Democrats had been splitting their support between several candidates, including Becerra and Steyer. If Democrats coalesce behind one candidate, Hilton’s gap between himself and the top candidate could grow heading into the general election.
Hilton only had a 7 percent chance of winning the election, according to Kalshi odds, putting him far behind Becerra’s 70 percent, with Polymarket presenting the same odds.
Steve Hilton’s Advantages
Hilton’s history as a Fox News host has positioned him as a recognizable figure with a fairly clear ideological brand. He’s campaigned on lowering taxes, cracking down on crime and combating what he calls failed Democratic policies. He has the support of Trump, who said Hilton could “turn it around before it is too late.” While endorsing Hilton, Trump said he would help the Republican if he wins the governor’s race and said he would “never” let California voters down.
Along with issues affecting Californians quality of life, Hilton said he would investigate Newsom over fraud if he’s elected governor.
“We’ve got to get this state back on track, and the only chance to do that is getting me into the top two,” Hilton said at a campaign event on Monday.
Even with a unified Republican Party, Hilton won’t have enough support to become governor. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republican voters in California two to one, according to records reviewed by Newsweek. This means Hilton will have to pull either independents or Democrats to his coalition to win. He’ll also benefit if Democrats are disaffected by the economy and Newsom’s governing and don’t cast ballots due to a lack of motivation.
When Was the Last Time a Republican Won California Governor’s Race?
Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican to win the gubernatorial election in California, when he was reelected in 2006. At the time, Republicans were on a much more even playing ground when it comes to registered voters. At the time of Schwarzenegger’s reelection, there were 5.4 million registered Republicans and 6.7 million registered Democrats.
Now, there are over 10 million registered Democrats and only about 5 million registered Republicans in the state.
How Hilton’s Fundraising Compares to Democrats
Hilton’s raised over $7 million this year for his campaign, according to records reviewed by Newsweek. Nearly half of those donations were made after April 19, indicating and uptick in Hilton’s appeal. It’s a greater war chest than Becerra, who’s raised a little over $6 million this year, with over $5 million being donating after April 19.
Steyer had the biggest war chest by a significant margin at over $160 million, according to California’s records.
Hilton’s ability to beat Democrats and become the first Republican governor in California in 15 years relies heavily on his ability to broaden his coalition. He needs to win over independents and possibly Democrats if he wants to even put up a fight in the race.
Becerra Advances to California Governor General Election
Becerra secured a place in California’s November gubernatorial election after advancing in the state’s crowded primary on Friday.
Becerra, a Democrat and also former California attorney general, gained momentum in his campaign by emphasizing his decades of public service and positioning himself as a proven counterweight to Trump. Becerra’s campaign focused heavily on affordability issues, including housing costs and energy prices.
His possible victory would also be historically significant because he could become California’s first Latino governor in more than a century.
While supporters praised Becerra’s experience and policy credentials, rivals have raised questions about his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and other challenges he faced while serving in the Biden administration.
