Swing voters don’t like Democrats, but prefer voting for them over GOP—Poll

Swing voters view Democrats more unfavorably than Republicans but still lean toward supporting Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll released by Data for Progress on Thursday.

Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances of flipping control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms as President Donald Trump’s approval rating falters amid ongoing economic concerns around the cost of living and inflation. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, so history would favor Democrats in November.

But the poll underscores a central problem for Democrats. Even if voters plan to support them in November, their party is still unpopular.

What to Know

• A new Data for Progress poll found that Republicans are viewed less unfavorably than Democrats among swing voters ahead of the midterm elections, but swing voters still back Democrats by a 12-point margin on the generic ballot.
• Democrats’ popularity has struggled in the second Trump era among both independent voters, a critical voting bloc, and their base, which has been frustrated by what they view as a weak response to the Trump administration.
• Polls and prediction markets favor Democrats to flip the House, but Republicans have a better chance at holding onto their majority in the Senate.

Swing Voters Backing Democrats Despite Poor Favorability

The poll surveyed 5,809 respondents, 447 of whom identified as swing voters, from May 15 to June 21, and was made public on Thursday.

Only 29 percent of swing voters said they view Democrats favorably, compared to 32 percent who view Republicans favorably, the poll found. In total, Democrats’ net favorability stood at -29 points, while Republicans’ stood at -25 points. Trump was still much less popular, with a net approval rating of -42 points in the poll.

Despite being viewed more unfavorably, Democrats still led the generic ballot among swing voters by 12 points, with 33 percent saying they would back Democrats in November and 21 percent saying they’d support Republicans.

An additional 46 percent said they were still undecided about how they’d vote.

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek Trump is the reason swing voters who dislike Democrats may still be voting for them.

“They are increasingly critical and alienated by Trump’s rhetoric and his policies, including most recently the Iran war. Also, there are aspects of their economic situations that they are not happy with,” he said.

Trump may also be causing “ambivalence” and a lack of enthusiasm among Republican-leaning swing voters who may be undecided about how they will vote in November or decide to sit out the election, he said.

Why Are Democrats So Unpopular?

Reeher said there are a number of reasons Democrats are still unpopular, including that they have been unable to “put forward a coherent positive alternative vision to Trump and Trumpism” and that news is being “driven by the extremes on the Left, which hurts them with swing voters.”

“They have negative baggage of their own, including the collusion to prop up Joe Biden until it was too obvious and too late, and candidates like Platner,” he said, referring to Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, who said Wednesday he would suspend his campaign after new sexual assault allegations. He has denied the accusations.

Some Democrats have acknowledged their poll approval numbers.

“I’m proud of so many things that my Democratic colleagues are doing, but as a whole, our party has failed this moment. It’s why I’ve called for new leadership in America. I’ve called for a generational renewal, because this left-right divide is killing our country, and our adversaries know it,” New Jersey U.S. Senator Cory Booker said on NBC News’ Meet the Press in March.

Democrats have, at times, faced criticism from their own voters following Trump’s return to office. Over the first year of his second administration, many Democrats felt that their representatives in Washington, D.C., were not fighting hard enough against his policies like his hard-line approach to immigration.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Recent polling suggests independent voters prefer Democrats for the midterms. A poll from YouGov and The Economist found that 29 percent of independents will vote for Democrats, compared to 16 percent for Republicans and 2 percent for other parties. Twenty percent were undecided, while 33 percent said they would not vote.

It surveyed 1,603 adults from July 3 to July 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

A Quantus Insights poll found that Democrats’ support among independents stood at 42 percent, while Republicans’ support stood at 34 percent. An additional 24 percent were undecided.

It found that nearly 26 percent of independents view Republicans as more extreme, while nearly 21 percent said Democrats are more extreme. It surveyed 1,140 respondents from July 3 to July 7.

A Cygnal poll, however, found that 38 percent of swing voters plan to back Republicans, compared to 35 percent planning to vote for Democratic candidates in the midterms. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,500 respondents on June 30 and July 1.

In that poll, 29 percent of swing voters viewed Republicans in Congress favorably, while an additional 29 percent viewed Democrats in Congress favorably.

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping House, Senate in Midterms

Overall, Democrats are favored to retake the House, but the Senate remains an uphill challenge, according to polls and forecasters. The Data for Progress poll gave Democrats a generic ballot lead of 7 points among all voters, with 51 percent backing Democrats and 44 percent supporting Republicans.

In the Quantus poll, 47 percent said they would vote for Democrats, while 42 percent said they would support Republicans. A recent poll from Scripps News found Democrats’ support at 48 percent, and Republicans’ at 39 percent. It surveyed 2,000 registered voters from June 25 to July 2.

Democrats’ chances of flipping the House stood at 83 percent on Kalshi and 84 percent on Polymarket as of Thursday afternoon.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Democrats face tougher odds in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority. They must flip four seats but have limited obvious flip opportunities this year.

North Carolina, which Trump won by only 3 points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, present Democrats their best opportunities as they also defend seats in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan. But no other seats are up for grabs that he outright lost or won by single digits, so Democrats must turn to more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, which he won by double digits, to seize a majority.

Democrats had only a 43 percent chance of flipping control of the Senate on Kalshi but a 47 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday.

What Happens Next

Swing voters and independents will remain a critical voting bloc heading into the last few months before the midterm elections as Democrats hope to win them back in 2026. Polls will be closely watched as a key metric to gauge the electorate’s mood before November.