Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Defense takes center stage in Red River Rivalry
Texas is the No. 1 team in the AP Rankings and has the most impressive win of the season on its resume, but the Longhorns have plenty of skeptics.
Such is life in the big city, especially when you have an anointed star at quarterback, but the detractors have a point.
The record and resume may look worthy of the No. 1 ranking, but Texas’ statistical profile leaves something to be desired.
Will Oklahoma be able to expose that on Saturday?
The Sooners are a 7.5-point underdog in the Red River Rivalry.
Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction
The Sooners were gashed for 41 points by Georgia, but the defense remains the calling card in Norman. Oklahoma is banged up, but it ranks No. 6 in defensive SP+ and certainly stands a chance of slowing down Arch Manning and the Longhorns.
This year was supposed to look different for Manning at Texas, and while he flipped the result of the Ohio State game from 2025, the Longhorns still lack pizzazz on offense. The junior QB is part of the problem.
Manning has completed 73 of 115 passes (63.5 percent) with just seven touchdowns against three interceptions, good enough for a 64.5 QB Rating, which is 48th-best among qualified signal-callers.
Those are passable numbers for some folks on some teams, but not Manning. Especially considering the weapons at his disposal.
The good news for Manning and the Longhorns is that they likely won’t have to light up the scoreboard on Saturday. Oklahoma’s offense has completely stalled this season, ranking 78th in SP+, 87th in points per game, and 95th in yards per play.
The Texas defense is a beast and should have no issues keeping the lid on John Mateer and Boomer Sooner.
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This game will be billed by the networks as Manning vs. Mateer, but the real matchup is between two of the best defenses in the country.
It’s a low total, especially in this rivalry, but there’s still room for a play on the under.
The Play: Under 39.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
